Vaprus vs Trans Narva preview
Vaprus faces Trans Narva in the Meistriliiga, with a 45% chance for Vaprus to win according to the model 1X2 probabilities. The expected goals show Vaprus at 1.79 and Trans Narva at 1.10, suggesting Vaprus may have the upper hand. However, the recent form indicates Vaprus has lost three of their last five matches, while Trans Narva has not won in six games.
The likelihood of Over 2.5 goals stands at 55%, and both teams to score is at 57%. This means there is a reasonable chance for a high-scoring game. Still, if Vaprus continues their inconsistent form or if Trans Narva finds a way to break their losing streak, the outcome could differ from expectations.
Vaprus vs Trans Narva: model vs market
| Source | Vaprus | Draw | Trans Narva |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 52% | 25% | 22% |
| Market | 42% | 25% | 33% |
| Published | 45% | 25% | 30% |
| Edge | +10% | 0% | -11% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.79 vs 1.10.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Vaprus below the model: +10.4 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.20, recorded — the top price across the 5 books we record, each at its own last update.
Vaprus vs Trans Narva odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Vaprus, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-04.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vaprus | 2.15 | 2.15 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.60 | 3.60 | +0.00 |
| Trans Narva | 2.70 | 2.75 | +0.05 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Vaprus and Trans Narva expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.90
- Attack rating (Vaprus / Trans Narva)
- 0.88 / 0.64
- Defence rating (Vaprus / Trans Narva)
- 1.24 / 1.17
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Vaprus vs Trans Narva score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Vaprus goals. Columns: Trans Narva goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Vaprus vs Trans Narva goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 57%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Vaprus vs Trans Narva
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Vaprus | 45% | 2.24 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.97 | |
| Trans Narva | 30% | 3.31 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55% | 1.81 |
| Under 2.5 | 45% | 2.24 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57% | 1.76 |
| No | 43% | 2.32 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Vaprus or draw) | 70% | 1.43 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or Trans Narva) | 55% | 1.81 | |
| Handicap -1 | Vaprus win by 2+ | 30% | 3.33 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Vaprus and Trans Narva recent form
Vaprus
2W 1D 3L
Trans Narva
0W 2D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Vaprus at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-2-5
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.71
- Goals against / match
- 1.57
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 14
- They have won 10 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 28 matches.
- They have converted 8 of 8 penalties (100%).
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Trans Narva away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-12
- Win rate
- 7%
- Goals for / match
- 0.36
- Goals against / match
- 2.86
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 14
- They have won 5 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They average 1.1 goals per game at home against 0.4 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 14 of 28 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Vaprus at home only, Trans Narva away only.
Vaprus vs Trans Narva head-to-head
Last 7 meetings: Vaprus 1 · draws 2 · Trans Narva 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-18 | Trans Narva | 3-1 | Vaprus | Meistriliiga |
| 2026-05-09 | Vaprus | 2-0 | Trans Narva | Meistriliiga |
| 2026-03-21 | Trans Narva | 2-1 | Vaprus | Meistriliiga |
| 2025-10-18 | Trans Narva | 1-1 | Vaprus | Meistriliiga |
| 2025-07-12 | Vaprus | 0-0 | Trans Narva | Meistriliiga |
| 2025-05-11 | Trans Narva | 4-2 | Vaprus | Meistriliiga |
| 2025-04-23 | Vaprus | 1-2 | Trans Narva | Meistriliiga |
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