Tammeka vs Nõmme United: model vs market
| Source | Tammeka | Draw | Nõmme United |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 52% | 23% | 26% |
| Market | 46% | 24% | 30% |
| Published | 47% | 24% | 29% |
| Edge | +6% | -2% | -4% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.12 vs 1.46.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Tammeka below the model: +6.0 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.00, recorded — the top price across the 5 books we record, each at its own last update.
Tammeka vs Nõmme United odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Tammeka, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-04.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tammeka | 1.95 | 1.97 | +0.02 |
| Draw | 3.75 | 3.72 | -0.03 |
| Nõmme United | 3.00 | 3.00 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Tammeka and Nõmme United expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.58
- Attack rating (Tammeka / Nõmme United)
- 0.92 / 0.84
- Defence rating (Tammeka / Nõmme United)
- 1.25 / 1.31
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Tammeka vs Nõmme United score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Tammeka goals. Columns: Nõmme United goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Tammeka vs Nõmme United goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 69%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Tammeka vs Nõmme United
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Tammeka | 47% | 2.12 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.20 | |
| Nõmme United | 29% | 3.46 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69% | 1.44 |
| Under 2.5 | 31% | 3.27 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69% | 1.46 |
| No | 31% | 3.18 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Tammeka or draw) | 71% | 1.41 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.31 | |
| X2 (draw or Nõmme United) | 53% | 1.90 | |
| Handicap -1 | Tammeka win by 2+ | 31% | 3.18 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Tammeka and Nõmme United recent form
Tammeka
2W 0D 4L
Nõmme United
1W 0D 5L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Tammeka at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-1-6
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.21
- Goals against / match
- 1.21
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 14
- They have won 14 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 28 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Nõmme United away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-1-8
- Win rate
- 36%
- Goals for / match
- 1.29
- Goals against / match
- 2.50
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 14
- They have won 9 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 28 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Tammeka at home only, Nõmme United away only.
Tammeka vs Nõmme United head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Tammeka 3 · draws 0 · Nõmme United 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-14 | Nõmme United | 0-1 | Tammeka | Meistriliiga |
| 2026-05-15 | Tammeka | 3-1 | Nõmme United | Meistriliiga |
| 2026-03-21 | Nõmme United | 2-3 | Tammeka | Meistriliiga |
Other Matchday 30 fixtures
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- Vaprus vs Trans Narva — team news & stats 2026-10-10
- FC Levadia Tallinn v Paide — match page 2026-10-11
- Kuressaare vs Flora Tallinn — team news & stats 2026-10-11