FC Levadia Tallinn vs Paide: model vs market
| Source | FC Levadia Tallinn | Draw | Paide |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 75% | 16% | 8% |
| Market | 65% | 19% | 15% |
| Published | 68% | 19% | 14% |
| Edge | +10% | -3% | -7% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.57 vs 0.78.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 4 for the opposition.
- The market prices FC Levadia Tallinn below the model: +10.1 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.39, recorded — the top price across the 5 books we record, each at its own last update.
FC Levadia Tallinn vs Paide odds movement
Median bookmaker price on FC Levadia Tallinn, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-04.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Levadia Tallinn | 1.38 | 1.38 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 4.80 | 4.65 | -0.15 |
| Paide | 6.30 | 5.85 | -0.45 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
FC Levadia Tallinn and Paide expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.35
- Attack rating (FC Levadia Tallinn / Paide)
- 1.78 / 1.05
- Defence rating (FC Levadia Tallinn / Paide)
- 0.53 / 0.82
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
FC Levadia Tallinn vs Paide score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: FC Levadia Tallinn goals. Columns: Paide goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
FC Levadia Tallinn vs Paide goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 51%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for FC Levadia Tallinn vs Paide
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Levadia Tallinn | 68% | 1.48 |
| Draw | 19% | 5.38 | |
| Paide | 14% | 7.34 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65% | 1.54 |
| Under 2.5 | 35% | 2.85 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51% | 1.98 |
| No | 49% | 2.02 | |
| Double chance | 1X (FC Levadia Tallinn or draw) | 86% | 1.16 |
| 12 (either side) | 81% | 1.23 | |
| X2 (draw or Paide) | 32% | 3.10 | |
| Handicap -1 | FC Levadia Tallinn win by 2+ | 54% | 1.84 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
FC Levadia Tallinn and Paide recent form
FC Levadia Tallinn
5W 1D 0L
Paide
4W 0D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
FC Levadia Tallinn at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 10-3-1
- Win rate
- 71%
- Goals for / match
- 3.29
- Goals against / match
- 0.50
- Clean sheets
- 9 of 14
- They have won 22 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 2.9 goals per match.
- They average 3.3 goals per game at home against 2.4 on the road.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 10 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
Paide away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-5-3
- Win rate
- 47%
- Goals for / match
- 1.87
- Goals against / match
- 1.47
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 15
- They have won 14 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 28 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 7 of 7 penalties (100%).
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: FC Levadia Tallinn at home only, Paide away only.
FC Levadia Tallinn vs Paide head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: FC Levadia Tallinn 6 · draws 1 · Paide 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | Paide | 0-2 | FC Levadia Tallinn | Meistriliiga |
| 2026-08-26 | FC Levadia Tallinn | 4-1 | Paide | Cup |
| 2026-05-17 | Paide | 1-3 | FC Levadia Tallinn | Meistriliiga |
| 2026-03-22 | FC Levadia Tallinn | 2-2 | Paide | Meistriliiga |
| 2025-10-22 | FC Levadia Tallinn | 1-2 | Paide | Meistriliiga |
| 2025-07-04 | Paide | 0-3 | FC Levadia Tallinn | Meistriliiga |
| 2025-05-11 | FC Levadia Tallinn | 2-1 | Paide | Meistriliiga |
| 2025-04-23 | Paide | 2-1 | FC Levadia Tallinn | Meistriliiga |
| 2024-11-09 | Paide | 3-0 | FC Levadia Tallinn | Meistriliiga |
| 2024-05-29 | Paide | 0-1 | FC Levadia Tallinn | Meistriliiga |
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