Kalju Nomme vs Laagri preview
Kalju Nomme faces Laagri in the Meistriliiga, with a 59% probability for a Kalju Nomme win according to the model. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 10% chance. Both teams to score stands at 58%, while Over 2.5 goals is at 59%.
Kalju Nomme's recent form shows two wins followed by four losses, while Laagri has two wins, a draw, and two losses in their last six matches. The head-to-head record favors Kalju Nomme with six wins against Laagri's one in the last seven encounters. However, the confidence grade is C, indicating that unexpected results could occur.
Kalju Nomme vs Laagri: model vs market
| Source | Kalju Nomme | Draw | Laagri |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 56% | 24% | 20% |
| Market | 60% | 21% | 19% |
| Published | 59% | 22% | 19% |
| Edge | -4% | +3% | +1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.93 vs 1.11.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.57, recorded — the top price across the 5 books we record, each at its own last update.
Kalju Nomme vs Laagri odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Kalju Nomme, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-04.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kalju Nomme | 1.57 | 1.50 | -0.07 |
| Draw | 4.10 | 4.25 | +0.15 |
| Laagri | 4.55 | 4.75 | +0.20 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Kalju Nomme and Laagri expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.04
- Attack rating (Kalju Nomme / Laagri)
- 1.17 / 0.90
- Defence rating (Kalju Nomme / Laagri)
- 0.88 / 0.94
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Kalju Nomme vs Laagri score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Kalju Nomme goals. Columns: Laagri goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Kalju Nomme vs Laagri goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 58%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Kalju Nomme vs Laagri
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Kalju Nomme | 59% | 1.70 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.57 | |
| Laagri | 19% | 5.18 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59% | 1.71 |
| Under 2.5 | 41% | 2.42 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58% | 1.72 |
| No | 42% | 2.40 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Kalju Nomme or draw) | 81% | 1.24 |
| 12 (either side) | 78% | 1.28 | |
| X2 (draw or Laagri) | 41% | 2.43 | |
| Handicap -1 | Kalju Nomme win by 2+ | 33% | 3.01 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Kalju Nomme and Laagri recent form
Kalju Nomme
2W 0D 4L
Laagri
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Kalju Nomme at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-3-5
- Win rate
- 47%
- Goals for / match
- 2.13
- Goals against / match
- 1.13
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 15
- They have won 14 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.1 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 28 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Laagri away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-0-9
- Win rate
- 36%
- Goals for / match
- 1.21
- Goals against / match
- 1.86
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 14
- They have won 11 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 28 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Kalju Nomme at home only, Laagri away only.
Kalju Nomme vs Laagri head-to-head
Last 7 meetings: Kalju Nomme 6 · draws 0 · Laagri 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | Laagri | 1-0 | Kalju Nomme | Meistriliiga |
| 2026-05-20 | Kalju Nomme | 1-0 | Laagri | Meistriliiga |
| 2026-04-08 | Laagri | 0-2 | Kalju Nomme | Meistriliiga |
| 2025-10-19 | Laagri | 1-3 | Kalju Nomme | Meistriliiga |
| 2025-09-24 | Laagri | 2-3 | Kalju Nomme | Meistriliiga |
| 2025-06-18 | Kalju Nomme | 1-0 | Laagri | Meistriliiga |
| 2025-04-09 | Kalju Nomme | 3-0 | Laagri | Meistriliiga |
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