Paide vs Tammeka preview
In the Meistriliiga fixture, Paide has a 65% chance to win against Tammeka, who has a 15% chance. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with our model predicting a 10% probability for this outcome. Paide's expected goals stand at 2.31, while Tammeka's is only 1.05, suggesting a strong offensive performance from Paide.
However, Tammeka could disrupt this prediction. Their recent form shows 1 win in 6 matches, while Paide has 4 wins in their last 6. The model also indicates a 65% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance for both teams to score. If Tammeka finds their rhythm, the match could deviate from these expectations.
Paide vs Tammeka: model vs market
| Source | Paide | Draw | Tammeka |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 65% | 20% | 15% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 65% | 20% | 15% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.31 vs 1.05.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Paide and Tammeka expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.37
- Attack rating (Paide / Tammeka)
- 1.05 / 0.92
- Defence rating (Paide / Tammeka)
- 0.82 / 1.25
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Paide vs Tammeka score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Paide goals. Columns: Tammeka goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Paide vs Tammeka goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 60%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Paide vs Tammeka
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Paide | 65% | 1.55 |
| Draw | 20% | 4.93 | |
| Tammeka | 15% | 6.65 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65% | 1.53 |
| Under 2.5 | 35% | 2.89 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60% | 1.68 |
| No | 40% | 2.47 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Paide or draw) | 85% | 1.18 |
| 12 (either side) | 80% | 1.25 | |
| X2 (draw or Tammeka) | 35% | 2.83 | |
| Handicap -1 | Paide win by 2+ | 43% | 2.33 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Paide and Tammeka recent form
Paide
4W 0D 2L
Tammeka
2W 0D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Paide at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 8-1-5
- Win rate
- 57%
- Goals for / match
- 1.43
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 14
- They have won 15 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 8 of 8 penalties (100%).
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Tammeka away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-1-7
- Win rate
- 47%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 15
- They have won 14 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Paide at home only, Tammeka away only.
Paide vs Tammeka head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Paide 9 · draws 0 · Tammeka 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Tammeka | 0-2 | Paide | Meistriliiga |
| 2026-05-01 | Paide | 0-1 | Tammeka | Meistriliiga |
| 2026-04-12 | Tammeka | 1-4 | Paide | Meistriliiga |
| 2025-10-29 | Paide | 3-0 | Tammeka | Cup |
| 2025-10-18 | Paide | 5-0 | Tammeka | Meistriliiga |
| 2025-08-23 | Tammeka | 0-1 | Paide | Meistriliiga |
| 2025-06-28 | Tammeka | 0-2 | Paide | Meistriliiga |
| 2025-04-05 | Paide | 1-0 | Tammeka | Meistriliiga |
| 2024-10-26 | Paide | 2-0 | Tammeka | Meistriliiga |
| 2024-08-24 | Tammeka | 1-3 | Paide | Meistriliiga |
Other Matchday 31 fixtures
- Vaprus vs Kalju Nomme 2026-10-13
- Laagri v Nõmme United — match page 2026-10-13
- Trans Narva vs Kuressaare — team news & stats 2026-10-14
- Flora Tallinn v FC Levadia Tallinn — match page 2026-10-15
Before and after this match
- Paide, previous: FC Levadia Tallinn vs Paide: odds and pick
- Tammeka, previous: Tammeka v Nõmme United analysis