Updated

Meistriliiga · Matchday 31

Laagri vs Nõmme United

· Laagri kunstmurustaadion, Laagri· Referee R. Maalinn

Full time2 – 0

Alin prediction was Laagri to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 0

11% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
LaagriDrawNõmme United

Laagri vs Nõmme United: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceLaagriDrawNõmme United
Model67%21%13%
Market46%24%30%
Published51%23%26%
Edge+5%-1%-4%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.20 vs 0.88.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Laagri below our published probability: +5.1 percentage points of edge.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Laagri vs Nõmme United odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Laagri, 9 snapshots since 2026-10-09.

Opened 2.21Now 1.95 -0.26
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Laagri2.211.95-0.26
Draw3.803.77-0.03
Nõmme United2.603.00+0.40

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Laagri and Nõmme United expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.20Laagri
0.88Nõmme United
Total expected goals
3.08
Attack rating (Laagri / Nõmme United)
0.87 / 0.76
Defence rating (Laagri / Nõmme United)
0.84 / 1.44

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Laagri vs Nõmme United score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 5.5% 3.1% 1.8% 0.5% 0.1% 1 9.2% 9.8% 3.9% 1.1% 0.3% 2 11.1% 9.8% 4.3% 1.3% 0.3% 3 8.2% 7.2% 3.2% 0.9% 0.2% 4+ 7.5% 6.6% 2.9% 0.8% 0.2%

Rows: Laagri goals. Columns: Nõmme United goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Laagri vs Nõmme United goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%
Over 1.5 82%
Over 2.5 59%
Over 3.5 37%
Both teams to score
53%
No goals (0–0)
5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Laagri vs Nõmme United

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Laagri51%1.95
Draw23%4.34
Nõmme United26%3.89
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.559%1.68
Under 2.541%2.47
Both teams to scoreYes53%1.89
No47%2.12
Double chance1X (Laagri or draw)74%1.35
12 (either side)77%1.30
X2 (draw or Nõmme United)49%2.05
Handicap -1Laagri win by 2+44%2.28
Push (exactly one goal)23%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Laagri and Nõmme United recent form

Laagri 3W 1D 2L
Nõmme United 1W 0D 5L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Laagri at home

Record (W-D-L)
6-2-7
Win rate
40%
Goals for / match
1.53
Goals against / match
1.40
Clean sheets
6 of 15
  • They have won 12 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
  • They have kept 8 clean sheets in 30 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 8 of 30 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
  • 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Nõmme United away

Record (W-D-L)
5-1-9
Win rate
33%
Goals for / match
1.20
Goals against / match
2.60
Clean sheets
0 of 15
  • They have won 9 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
  • They have failed to score in 6 of 30 matches.
  • They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
  • 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Laagri at home only, Nõmme United away only.

Laagri vs Nõmme United head-to-head

Last 9 meetings: Laagri 5 · draws 0 · Nõmme United 4.

LaagriDrawsNõmme United
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-08-29Nõmme United1-2LaagriMeistriliiga
2026-06-20Laagri1-3Nõmme UnitedMeistriliiga
2026-04-18Nõmme United1-2LaagriMeistriliiga
2025-10-30Laagri0-1Nõmme UnitedCup
2024-08-14Laagri3-0Nõmme UnitedCup
2022-10-22Laagri5-1Nõmme UnitedEsiliiga A
2022-09-04Nõmme United4-1LaagriEsiliiga A
2022-04-28Laagri4-2Nõmme UnitedEsiliiga A
2022-04-10Nõmme United3-2LaagriEsiliiga A

Other Matchday 31 fixtures

Before and after this match