Laagri vs Nõmme United: model vs market
| Source | Laagri | Draw | Nõmme United |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 59% | 23% | 19% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 59% | 23% | 19% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.07 vs 1.10.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Laagri and Nõmme United expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.18
- Attack rating (Laagri / Nõmme United)
- 0.90 / 0.84
- Defence rating (Laagri / Nõmme United)
- 0.94 / 1.31
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Laagri vs Nõmme United score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Laagri goals. Columns: Nõmme United goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Laagri vs Nõmme United goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 59%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Laagri vs Nõmme United
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Laagri | 59% | 1.70 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.41 | |
| Nõmme United | 19% | 5.39 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62% | 1.63 |
| Under 2.5 | 38% | 2.60 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59% | 1.69 |
| No | 41% | 2.46 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Laagri or draw) | 81% | 1.23 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.29 | |
| X2 (draw or Nõmme United) | 41% | 2.43 | |
| Handicap -1 | Laagri win by 2+ | 37% | 2.73 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Laagri and Nõmme United recent form
Laagri
3W 1D 2L
Nõmme United
1W 0D 5L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Laagri at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-2-7
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.53
- Goals against / match
- 1.40
- Clean sheets
- 6 of 15
- They have won 11 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 28 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Nõmme United away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-1-8
- Win rate
- 36%
- Goals for / match
- 1.29
- Goals against / match
- 2.50
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 14
- They have won 9 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 28 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Laagri at home only, Nõmme United away only.
Laagri vs Nõmme United head-to-head
Last 9 meetings: Laagri 5 · draws 0 · Nõmme United 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Nõmme United | 1-2 | Laagri | Meistriliiga |
| 2026-06-20 | Laagri | 1-3 | Nõmme United | Meistriliiga |
| 2026-04-18 | Nõmme United | 1-2 | Laagri | Meistriliiga |
| 2025-10-30 | Laagri | 0-1 | Nõmme United | Cup |
| 2024-08-14 | Laagri | 3-0 | Nõmme United | Cup |
| 2022-10-22 | Laagri | 5-1 | Nõmme United | Esiliiga A |
| 2022-09-04 | Nõmme United | 4-1 | Laagri | Esiliiga A |
| 2022-04-28 | Laagri | 4-2 | Nõmme United | Esiliiga A |
| 2022-04-10 | Nõmme United | 3-2 | Laagri | Esiliiga A |
Other Matchday 31 fixtures
- Vaprus vs Kalju Nomme 2026-10-13