Updated

Meistriliiga · Matchday 32

Laagri vs Vaprus

· Laagri kunstmurustaadion, Laagri· Referee A. Porila

Full time2 – 0

Alin prediction was Laagri to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 1

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
LaagriDrawVaprus

Laagri vs Vaprus: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceLaagriDrawVaprus
Model60%23%17%
Market45%25%30%
Published49%25%27%
Edge+15%-3%-12%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.06 vs 1.04.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Laagri below the model: +15.3 percentage points of edge.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Laagri vs Vaprus odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Laagri, 9 snapshots since 2026-10-14.

Opened 2.11Now 2.00 -0.10
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Laagri2.112.00-0.10
Draw3.753.52-0.23
Vaprus2.883.01+0.13

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Laagri and Vaprus expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.06Laagri
1.04Vaprus
Total expected goals
3.10
Attack rating (Laagri / Vaprus)
0.93 / 0.98
Defence rating (Laagri / Vaprus)
0.77 / 1.26

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Laagri vs Vaprus score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 5.5% 3.7% 2.4% 0.8% 0.3% 1 8.3% 10.6% 5.0% 1.7% 0.6% 2 9.6% 9.9% 5.1% 1.8% 0.6% 3 6.6% 6.8% 3.5% 1.2% 0.4% 4+ 5.5% 5.7% 2.9% 1.0% 0.3%

Rows: Laagri goals. Columns: Vaprus goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Laagri vs Vaprus goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%
Over 1.5 82%
Over 2.5 60%
Over 3.5 37%
Both teams to score
57%
No goals (0–0)
5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Laagri vs Vaprus

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Laagri49%2.06
Draw25%4.04
Vaprus27%3.75
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.560%1.67
Under 2.540%2.49
Both teams to scoreYes57%1.75
No43%2.34
Double chance1X (Laagri or draw)73%1.36
12 (either side)75%1.33
X2 (draw or Vaprus)51%1.94
Handicap -1Laagri win by 2+38%2.66
Push (exactly one goal)23%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Laagri and Vaprus recent form

Laagri 3W 1D 2L
Vaprus 1W 2D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Laagri at home

Record (W-D-L)
7-2-7
Win rate
44%
Goals for / match
1.56
Goals against / match
1.31
Clean sheets
7 of 16
  • They have won 13 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
  • They have kept 9 clean sheets in 31 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 8 of 31 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
  • 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Vaprus away

Record (W-D-L)
3-2-10
Win rate
20%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
2.33
Clean sheets
2 of 15
  • They have won 10 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
  • They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
  • They have kept 6 clean sheets in 31 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 6 of 31 matches.
  • They have converted 8 of 8 penalties (100%).
  • 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Laagri at home only, Vaprus away only.

Laagri vs Vaprus head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Laagri 2 · draws 3 · Vaprus 5.

LaagriDrawsVaprus
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-09-09Vaprus3-2LaagriMeistriliiga
2026-05-16Laagri1-2VaprusMeistriliiga
2026-04-04Vaprus0-2LaagriMeistriliiga
2025-09-27Laagri1-2VaprusMeistriliiga
2025-07-25Vaprus2-2LaagriMeistriliiga
2025-04-26Laagri0-1VaprusMeistriliiga
2025-04-05Vaprus1-1LaagriMeistriliiga
2023-10-27Vaprus0-0LaagriMeistriliiga
2023-09-02Laagri0-4VaprusMeistriliiga
2023-05-28Vaprus0-1LaagriMeistriliiga

Other Matchday 32 fixtures

Before and after this match