Laagri vs Flora Tallinn preview
In the Meistriliiga fixture between Laagri and Flora Tallinn, Laagri has a 64% chance to win, while Flora Tallinn stands at just 14%. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, which aligns with Laagri's expected goals of 2.13 compared to Flora Tallinn's 0.93.
However, Flora Tallinn has shown some resilience recently, winning 3 of their last 6 matches. With a 54% chance for both teams to score and a 59% likelihood of Over 2.5 goals, there is potential for surprises. Laagri's recent form is strong, but Flora Tallinn's history in head-to-head matches, with 9 wins out of the last 10 encounters, could complicate predictions.
Laagri vs Flora Tallinn: model vs market
| Source | Laagri | Draw | Flora Tallinn |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 64% | 22% | 14% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 64% | 22% | 14% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.13 vs 0.93.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Laagri and Flora Tallinn expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.06
- Attack rating (Laagri / Flora Tallinn)
- 0.97 / 0.99
- Defence rating (Laagri / Flora Tallinn)
- 0.68 / 1.25
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Laagri vs Flora Tallinn score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Laagri goals. Columns: Flora Tallinn goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Laagri vs Flora Tallinn goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 54%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Laagri vs Flora Tallinn
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Laagri | 64% | 1.56 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.63 | |
| Flora Tallinn | 14% | 6.90 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59% | 1.69 |
| Under 2.5 | 41% | 2.44 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54% | 1.84 |
| No | 46% | 2.19 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Laagri or draw) | 86% | 1.17 |
| 12 (either side) | 78% | 1.28 | |
| X2 (draw or Flora Tallinn) | 36% | 2.77 | |
| Handicap -1 | Laagri win by 2+ | 41% | 2.43 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Laagri and Flora Tallinn recent form
Laagri
4W 1D 1L
Flora Tallinn
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Laagri at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 8-2-7
- Win rate
- 47%
- Goals for / match
- 1.59
- Goals against / match
- 1.24
- Clean sheets
- 8 of 17
- They have won 14 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 32 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
Flora Tallinn away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 9-1-5
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 1.73
- Goals against / match
- 1.47
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 15
- They have won 18 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Laagri at home only, Flora Tallinn away only.
Laagri vs Flora Tallinn head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Laagri 1 · draws 0 · Flora Tallinn 9.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-02 | Flora Tallinn | 1-0 | Laagri | Meistriliiga |
| 2026-04-30 | Flora Tallinn | 5-0 | Laagri | Meistriliiga |
| 2026-03-22 | Laagri | 2-0 | Flora Tallinn | Meistriliiga |
| 2025-10-04 | Laagri | 1-2 | Flora Tallinn | Meistriliiga |
| 2025-08-16 | Flora Tallinn | 3-1 | Laagri | Meistriliiga |
| 2025-05-09 | Laagri | 0-3 | Flora Tallinn | Meistriliiga |
| 2025-04-22 | Flora Tallinn | 4-1 | Laagri | Meistriliiga |
| 2023-10-22 | Laagri | 2-3 | Flora Tallinn | Meistriliiga |
| 2023-08-25 | Flora Tallinn | 2-0 | Laagri | Meistriliiga |
| 2023-05-19 | Laagri | 0-1 | Flora Tallinn | Meistriliiga |
Before and after this match
- Laagri, previous: Laagri vs Vaprus prediction
- Laagri, next: FC Levadia Tallinn – Laagri, 2026-10-24
- Flora Tallinn, previous: Flora Tallinn v Tammeka analysis
- Flora Tallinn, next: Kalju Nomme v Flora Tallinn analysis