Flora Tallinn vs Tammeka: model vs market
| Source | Flora Tallinn | Draw | Tammeka |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 44% | 23% | 34% |
| Market | 55% | 22% | 23% |
| Published | 52% | 22% | 25% |
| Edge | -11% | 0% | +11% |
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Flora Tallinn vs Tammeka odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Flora Tallinn, 9 snapshots since 2026-10-14.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Flora Tallinn | 1.65 | 1.63 | -0.02 |
| Draw | 4.10 | 4.00 | -0.10 |
| Tammeka | 4.13 | 3.96 | -0.17 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Flora Tallinn and Tammeka expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.84
- Attack rating (Flora Tallinn / Tammeka)
- 0.99 / 1.04
- Defence rating (Flora Tallinn / Tammeka)
- 1.25 / 1.18
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Flora Tallinn vs Tammeka score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Flora Tallinn goals. Columns: Tammeka goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Flora Tallinn vs Tammeka goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 73%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Flora Tallinn vs Tammeka
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Flora Tallinn | 52% | 1.92 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.45 | |
| Tammeka | 25% | 3.94 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 74% | 1.36 |
| Under 2.5 | 26% | 3.81 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 73% | 1.36 |
| No | 27% | 3.75 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Flora Tallinn or draw) | 75% | 1.34 |
| 12 (either side) | 78% | 1.29 | |
| X2 (draw or Tammeka) | 48% | 2.09 | |
| Handicap -1 | Flora Tallinn win by 2+ | 25% | 3.94 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Flora Tallinn and Tammeka recent form
Flora Tallinn
3W 1D 2L
Tammeka
2W 0D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Flora Tallinn at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 9-0-7
- Win rate
- 56%
- Goals for / match
- 2.12
- Goals against / match
- 1.38
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 16
- They have won 18 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
Tammeka away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-1-8
- Win rate
- 44%
- Goals for / match
- 1.31
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 16
- They have won 15 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 6 penalties (83%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Flora Tallinn at home only, Tammeka away only.
Flora Tallinn vs Tammeka head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Flora Tallinn 7 · draws 0 · Tammeka 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Flora Tallinn | 3-2 | Tammeka | Meistriliiga |
| 2026-08-26 | Tammeka | 3-1 | Flora Tallinn | Meistriliiga |
| 2026-04-03 | Tammeka | 3-1 | Flora Tallinn | Meistriliiga |
| 2025-09-20 | Flora Tallinn | 2-1 | Tammeka | Meistriliiga |
| 2025-07-20 | Tammeka | 1-2 | Flora Tallinn | Meistriliiga |
| 2025-05-30 | Flora Tallinn | 3-1 | Tammeka | Meistriliiga |
| 2025-04-08 | Tammeka | 1-2 | Flora Tallinn | Meistriliiga |
| 2025-02-08 | Flora Tallinn | 2-1 | Tammeka | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2024-09-21 | Flora Tallinn | 2-1 | Tammeka | Meistriliiga |
| 2024-07-19 | Tammeka | 2-0 | Flora Tallinn | Meistriliiga |
Other Matchday 32 fixtures
- Nõmme United vs Kalju Nomme — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Laagri v Vaprus — match page 2026-10-18
- Kuressaare vs FC Levadia Tallinn 2026-10-18
- Paide vs Trans Narva — team news & stats 2026-10-18
Before and after this match
- Flora Tallinn, previous: Flora Tallinn – FC Levadia Tallinn, 2026-10-15
- Flora Tallinn, next: Laagri vs Flora Tallinn: odds and pick
- Tammeka, previous: Paide vs Tammeka prediction
- Tammeka, next: Tammeka vs Trans Narva: odds and pick