Tammeka vs Trans Narva preview
Tammeka faces Trans Narva with a 59% chance of winning according to our model, while the most likely scoreline is 2-1. Tammeka's expected goals sit at 2.08 compared to Trans Narva's 1.08, highlighting a potential offensive edge for Tammeka.
However, Tammeka's recent form shows inconsistency with 3 losses in their last 6 matches, which could impact their performance. Trans Narva has struggled as well, with 5 games without a win. The probabilities for Over 2.5 goals stand at 61% and both teams to score at 59%, indicating a possibility of a high-scoring match, but recent form could lead to a different outcome.
Tammeka vs Trans Narva: model vs market
| Source | Tammeka | Draw | Trans Narva |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 60% | 22% | 18% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 60% | 22% | 18% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.12 vs 1.11.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Tammeka and Trans Narva expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.23
- Attack rating (Tammeka / Trans Narva)
- 1.04 / 0.68
- Defence rating (Tammeka / Trans Narva)
- 1.18 / 1.16
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Tammeka vs Trans Narva score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Tammeka goals. Columns: Trans Narva goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Tammeka vs Trans Narva goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 60%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Tammeka vs Trans Narva
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Tammeka | 60% | 1.68 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.49 | |
| Trans Narva | 18% | 5.52 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63% | 1.60 |
| Under 2.5 | 37% | 2.67 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60% | 1.67 |
| No | 40% | 2.49 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Tammeka or draw) | 82% | 1.22 |
| 12 (either side) | 78% | 1.29 | |
| X2 (draw or Trans Narva) | 40% | 2.48 | |
| Handicap -1 | Tammeka win by 2+ | 38% | 2.66 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Tammeka and Trans Narva recent form
Tammeka
2W 0D 4L
Trans Narva
0W 3D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Tammeka at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 8-1-6
- Win rate
- 53%
- Goals for / match
- 1.40
- Goals against / match
- 1.13
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 15
- They have won 15 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 6 penalties (83%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Trans Narva away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-13
- Win rate
- 6%
- Goals for / match
- 0.50
- Goals against / match
- 2.75
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 16
- They have won 5 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They average 1.1 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 15 of 31 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Tammeka at home only, Trans Narva away only.
Tammeka vs Trans Narva head-to-head
Last 7 meetings: Tammeka 3 · draws 0 · Trans Narva 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | Trans Narva | 0-2 | Tammeka | Meistriliiga |
| 2026-06-21 | Tammeka | 1-0 | Trans Narva | Meistriliiga |
| 2026-04-07 | Trans Narva | 3-0 | Tammeka | Meistriliiga |
| 2025-11-08 | Tammeka | 2-0 | Trans Narva | Meistriliiga |
| 2025-08-09 | Trans Narva | 4-1 | Tammeka | Meistriliiga |
| 2025-05-03 | Trans Narva | 4-0 | Tammeka | Meistriliiga |
| 2025-04-13 | Tammeka | 1-2 | Trans Narva | Meistriliiga |
Other Matchday 33 fixtures
- Nõmme United vs Vaprus — team news & stats 2026-10-23
- Kuressaare vs Paide — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- FC Levadia Tallinn vs Laagri 2026-10-24
- Kalju Nomme v Flora Tallinn — match page 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- Tammeka, previous: Flora Tallinn v Tammeka analysis
- Trans Narva, previous: Paide – Trans Narva, 2026-10-18