Kuressaare vs Paide preview
In the Meistriliiga fixture between Kuressaare and Paide, the 1X2 probabilities show Paide at 37%, slightly ahead of Kuressaare at 32%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, with an 11% chance according to our model. Kuressaare's expected goals stand at 1.10, while Paide is slightly higher at 1.20.
Both teams to score has a probability of 48%, indicating a close match, while Over 2.5 goals sits at 40%. Kuressaare's recent form shows 3 wins in their last 6 matches, while Paide has 4 wins in the same period. The head-to-head record favors Paide, who has won 4 out of the last 7 encounters, which could influence the outcome.
Kuressaare vs Paide: model vs market
| Source | Kuressaare | Draw | Paide |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 28% | 30% | 41% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 28% | 30% | 41% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Kuressaare and Paide expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.34
- Attack rating (Kuressaare / Paide)
- 0.76 / 1.00
- Defence rating (Kuressaare / Paide)
- 0.94 / 0.78
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Kuressaare vs Paide score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Kuressaare goals. Columns: Paide goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Kuressaare vs Paide goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 48%
- No goals (0–0)
- 11%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Kuressaare vs Paide
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Kuressaare | 28% | 3.55 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.29 | |
| Paide | 41% | 2.41 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 41% | 2.42 |
| Under 2.5 | 59% | 1.71 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 48% | 2.07 |
| No | 52% | 1.93 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Kuressaare or draw) | 59% | 1.71 |
| 12 (either side) | 70% | 1.44 | |
| X2 (draw or Paide) | 72% | 1.39 | |
| Handicap -1 | Paide win by 2+ | 20% | 5.12 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Kuressaare and Paide recent form
Kuressaare
2W 1D 3L
Paide
4W 0D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Kuressaare at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-3-7
- Win rate
- 38%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 16
- They have won 10 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 14 of 31 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Paide away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-5-4
- Win rate
- 44%
- Goals for / match
- 1.75
- Goals against / match
- 1.44
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 16
- They have won 16 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 8 of 8 penalties (100%).
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Kuressaare at home only, Paide away only.
Kuressaare vs Paide head-to-head
Last 7 meetings: Kuressaare 0 · draws 3 · Paide 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-02 | Paide | 1-0 | Kuressaare | Meistriliiga |
| 2026-05-31 | Paide | 1-1 | Kuressaare | Meistriliiga |
| 2026-04-03 | Kuressaare | 0-1 | Paide | Meistriliiga |
| 2025-10-04 | Kuressaare | 1-1 | Paide | Meistriliiga |
| 2025-08-16 | Paide | 5-1 | Kuressaare | Meistriliiga |
| 2025-05-04 | Paide | 1-1 | Kuressaare | Meistriliiga |
| 2025-03-02 | Kuressaare | 1-2 | Paide | Meistriliiga |
Other Matchday 33 fixtures
- Tammeka v Trans Narva — match page 2026-10-23
- Nõmme United vs Vaprus — team news & stats 2026-10-23
- FC Levadia Tallinn vs Laagri 2026-10-24
- Kalju Nomme v Flora Tallinn — match page 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- Kuressaare, previous: Kuressaare vs FC Levadia Tallinn: odds and pick
- Paide, previous: Paide – Trans Narva, 2026-10-18