Nõmme United vs Vaprus preview
In the Meistriliiga fixture, Nõmme United has a 42% chance to win against Vaprus, who stands at 34%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 9% probability. The model also indicates a strong likelihood of Over 2.5 goals at 65% and both teams to score at 67%.
Nõmme United's recent form shows a mix of results, with 2 wins in their last 6 matches, while Vaprus has struggled, recording 6 winless games. This context could influence the outcome, as Vaprus has historically won 6 of their last 10 encounters against Nõmme United, suggesting they could still pose a challenge despite their recent form.
Nõmme United vs Vaprus: model vs market
| Source | Nõmme United | Draw | Vaprus |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 42% | 25% | 34% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 42% | 25% | 34% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Nõmme United and Vaprus expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.37
- Attack rating (Nõmme United / Vaprus)
- 0.79 / 0.89
- Defence rating (Nõmme United / Vaprus)
- 1.29 / 1.28
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Nõmme United vs Vaprus score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Nõmme United goals. Columns: Vaprus goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Nõmme United vs Vaprus goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 67%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Nõmme United vs Vaprus
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Nõmme United | 42% | 2.39 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.07 | |
| Vaprus | 34% | 2.97 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65% | 1.53 |
| Under 2.5 | 35% | 2.89 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67% | 1.49 |
| No | 33% | 3.04 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Nõmme United or draw) | 66% | 1.51 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or Vaprus) | 58% | 1.72 | |
| Handicap -1 | Nõmme United win by 2+ | 23% | 4.40 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Nõmme United and Vaprus recent form
Nõmme United
2W 0D 4L
Vaprus
0W 2D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Nõmme United at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-0-11
- Win rate
- 31%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.06
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 16
- They have won 9 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 31 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Vaprus away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-2-11
- Win rate
- 19%
- Goals for / match
- 0.94
- Goals against / match
- 2.31
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 16
- They have won 10 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 31 matches.
- They have converted 8 of 8 penalties (100%).
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Nõmme United at home only, Vaprus away only.
Nõmme United vs Vaprus head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Nõmme United 4 · draws 0 · Vaprus 6.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Vaprus | 1-0 | Nõmme United | Meistriliiga |
| 2026-09-02 | Nõmme United | 3-2 | Vaprus | Cup |
| 2026-05-02 | Vaprus | 2-3 | Nõmme United | Meistriliiga |
| 2026-03-14 | Nõmme United | 7-1 | Vaprus | Meistriliiga |
| 2025-02-12 | Vaprus | 7-0 | Nõmme United | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2024-10-19 | Nõmme United | 0-2 | Vaprus | Meistriliiga |
| 2024-07-13 | Vaprus | 2-0 | Nõmme United | Meistriliiga |
| 2024-05-31 | Nõmme United | 2-1 | Vaprus | Meistriliiga |
| 2024-04-26 | Vaprus | 2-1 | Nõmme United | Meistriliiga |
| 2020-11-25 | Vaprus | 4-1 | Nõmme United | Esiliiga A |
Other Matchday 33 fixtures
- Tammeka v Trans Narva — match page 2026-10-23
- Kuressaare vs Paide — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- FC Levadia Tallinn vs Laagri 2026-10-24
- Kalju Nomme v Flora Tallinn — match page 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- Nõmme United, previous: Nõmme United v Kalju Nomme analysis
- Vaprus, previous: Laagri vs Vaprus prediction