Vaprus vs Kuressaare preview
In the Meistriliiga fixture, Vaprus has a 38% chance of winning against Kuressaare, who has a 35% chance. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with Vaprus expected to score 1.48 goals and Kuressaare 1.34. The model indicates a 54% probability for Over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance for both teams to score.
Vaprus is struggling with recent form, having lost four of their last six matches. Kuressaare, on the other hand, has won two of their last three games. This difference in form could impact the outcome, making the match unpredictable despite the statistics favoring Vaprus slightly.
Vaprus vs Kuressaare: model vs market
| Source | Vaprus | Draw | Kuressaare |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 39% | 27% | 33% |
| Market | 40% | 26% | 34% |
| Published | 40% | 26% | 34% |
| Edge | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.32, recorded — the top price across the 6 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -7.6% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Vaprus vs Kuressaare odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Vaprus, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-21.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vaprus | 2.35 | 2.26 | -0.09 |
| Draw | 3.44 | 3.48 | +0.04 |
| Kuressaare | 2.50 | 2.65 | +0.15 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Vaprus and Kuressaare expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.82
- Attack rating (Vaprus / Kuressaare)
- 0.93 / 0.71
- Defence rating (Vaprus / Kuressaare)
- 1.38 / 0.90
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Vaprus vs Kuressaare score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Vaprus goals. Columns: Kuressaare goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Vaprus vs Kuressaare goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 58%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Vaprus vs Kuressaare
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Vaprus | 40% | 2.51 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.79 | |
| Kuressaare | 34% | 2.96 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53% | 1.87 |
| Under 2.5 | 47% | 2.15 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58% | 1.72 |
| No | 42% | 2.39 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Vaprus or draw) | 66% | 1.51 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or Kuressaare) | 60% | 1.66 | |
| Handicap -1 | Vaprus win by 2+ | 20% | 5.10 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Vaprus and Kuressaare recent form
Vaprus
0W 2D 4L
Kuressaare
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Vaprus at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-4-5
- Win rate
- 44%
- Goals for / match
- 1.75
- Goals against / match
- 1.62
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 16
- They have won 10 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 33 matches.
- They have converted 8 of 8 penalties (100%).
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Kuressaare away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-2-10
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 0.88
- Goals against / match
- 1.69
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 16
- They have won 10 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 16 of 33 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Vaprus at home only, Kuressaare away only.
Vaprus vs Kuressaare head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Vaprus 6 · draws 1 · Kuressaare 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Kuressaare | 2-2 | Vaprus | Meistriliiga |
| 2026-06-26 | Vaprus | 1-0 | Kuressaare | Meistriliiga |
| 2026-04-21 | Kuressaare | 0-1 | Vaprus | Meistriliiga |
| 2026-01-31 | Vaprus | 9-2 | Kuressaare | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2025-10-21 | Vaprus | 0-1 | Kuressaare | Meistriliiga |
| 2025-07-20 | Kuressaare | 2-1 | Vaprus | Meistriliiga |
| 2025-06-01 | Vaprus | 2-1 | Kuressaare | Meistriliiga |
| 2025-04-18 | Kuressaare | 1-0 | Vaprus | Meistriliiga |
| 2025-02-01 | Kuressaare | 0-2 | Vaprus | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2024-10-06 | Vaprus | 3-1 | Kuressaare | Meistriliiga |
Other Matchday 34 fixtures
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- FC Levadia Tallinn vs Tammeka 2026-10-27
- Trans Narva v Nõmme United — match page 2026-10-27
- Paide v Kalju Nomme — match page 2026-10-28
Before and after this match
- Vaprus, previous: Nõmme United vs Vaprus prediction
- Vaprus, next: Vaprus v Paide analysis
- Kuressaare, previous: Kuressaare vs Paide: odds and pick
- Kuressaare, next: Kalju Nomme vs Kuressaare prediction