Vaprus vs Paide preview
In the Meistriliiga match between Vaprus and Paide, the 1X2 probabilities show Vaprus at 23%, a draw at 25%, and Paide at 52%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, which aligns with Paide's stronger recent form, winning 5 of their last 6 matches, while Vaprus has lost 5 of their last 6.
The model forecasts Over 2.5 goals at 58% and both teams to score at 59%. Vaprus has an expected goals figure of 1.17, while Paide stands at 1.85. If Vaprus can improve their performance and capitalize on home advantage, they might challenge Paide's dominance, but the numbers favor the visitors.
Vaprus vs Paide: model vs market
| Source | Vaprus | Draw | Paide |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 23% | 25% | 52% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 23% | 25% | 52% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.84 vs 1.17.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Vaprus and Paide expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.02
- Attack rating (Vaprus / Paide)
- 0.93 / 0.97
- Defence rating (Vaprus / Paide)
- 1.38 / 0.71
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Vaprus vs Paide score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Vaprus goals. Columns: Paide goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Vaprus vs Paide goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 59%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Vaprus vs Paide
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Vaprus | 23% | 4.33 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.02 | |
| Paide | 52% | 1.92 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58% | 1.72 |
| Under 2.5 | 42% | 2.39 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59% | 1.69 |
| No | 41% | 2.45 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Vaprus or draw) | 48% | 2.08 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or Paide) | 77% | 1.30 | |
| Handicap -1 | Paide win by 2+ | 30% | 3.33 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Vaprus and Paide recent form
Vaprus
0W 2D 4L
Paide
5W 0D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Vaprus at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-4-5
- Win rate
- 44%
- Goals for / match
- 1.75
- Goals against / match
- 1.62
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 16
- They have won 10 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 33 matches.
- They have converted 8 of 8 penalties (100%).
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Paide away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 8-5-4
- Win rate
- 47%
- Goals for / match
- 1.71
- Goals against / match
- 1.35
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 17
- They have won 18 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 8 of 8 penalties (100%).
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Vaprus at home only, Paide away only.
Vaprus vs Paide head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Vaprus 2 · draws 0 · Paide 8.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | Paide | 2-0 | Vaprus | Meistriliiga |
| 2026-07-04 | Paide | 3-1 | Vaprus | Meistriliiga |
| 2026-05-06 | Paide | 2-0 | Vaprus | Cup |
| 2026-03-07 | Vaprus | 3-2 | Paide | Meistriliiga |
| 2025-11-02 | Paide | 3-0 | Vaprus | Meistriliiga |
| 2025-08-30 | Vaprus | 1-0 | Paide | Meistriliiga |
| 2025-06-18 | Vaprus | 1-2 | Paide | Meistriliiga |
| 2025-04-09 | Paide | 1-0 | Vaprus | Meistriliiga |
| 2024-10-23 | Vaprus | 0-1 | Paide | Meistriliiga |
| 2024-08-18 | Paide | 1-0 | Vaprus | Meistriliiga |
Other Matchday 35 fixtures
- Tammeka v Laagri — match page 2026-10-31
- Nõmme United vs FC Levadia Tallinn — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Kalju Nomme vs Kuressaare — team news & stats 2026-11-01
- Flora Tallinn vs Trans Narva 2026-11-01
Before and after this match
- Vaprus, previous: Vaprus v Kuressaare analysis
- Paide, previous: Paide vs Kalju Nomme prediction