Kalju Nomme vs Kuressaare preview
In the Meistriliiga fixture, Kalju Nomme has a 51% probability to win against Kuressaare, who sits at 22%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 11% chance. Kalju Nomme's expected goals are 1.60, while Kuressaare's are 0.97. Recent form shows Kalju Nomme with two wins in their last three matches, while Kuressaare has only one win in their last six.
The chances for Over 2.5 goals stand at 47%, and both teams to score is at 51%. This means there is a significant possibility that the match could end with fewer goals or that only one team scores, which could challenge the predicted outcome. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating a moderate level of uncertainty.
Kalju Nomme vs Kuressaare: model vs market
| Source | Kalju Nomme | Draw | Kuressaare |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 51% | 27% | 22% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 51% | 27% | 22% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.60 vs 0.97.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Kalju Nomme and Kuressaare expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.57
- Attack rating (Kalju Nomme / Kuressaare)
- 1.01 / 0.71
- Defence rating (Kalju Nomme / Kuressaare)
- 1.00 / 0.90
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Kalju Nomme vs Kuressaare score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Kalju Nomme goals. Columns: Kuressaare goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Kalju Nomme vs Kuressaare goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 51%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Kalju Nomme vs Kuressaare
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Kalju Nomme | 51% | 1.96 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.66 | |
| Kuressaare | 22% | 4.63 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 47% | 2.11 |
| Under 2.5 | 53% | 1.90 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51% | 1.97 |
| No | 49% | 2.03 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Kalju Nomme or draw) | 78% | 1.28 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.38 | |
| X2 (draw or Kuressaare) | 49% | 2.04 | |
| Handicap -1 | Kalju Nomme win by 2+ | 28% | 3.62 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Kalju Nomme and Kuressaare recent form
Kalju Nomme
3W 1D 2L
Kuressaare
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Kalju Nomme at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 8-3-6
- Win rate
- 47%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.12
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 17
- They have won 16 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.4 on the road.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Kuressaare away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-2-10
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 0.88
- Goals against / match
- 1.69
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 16
- They have won 10 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 16 of 33 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Kalju Nomme at home only, Kuressaare away only.
Kalju Nomme vs Kuressaare head-to-head
Last 7 meetings: Kalju Nomme 6 · draws 1 · Kuressaare 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-19 | Kuressaare | 0-0 | Kalju Nomme | Meistriliiga |
| 2026-05-17 | Kuressaare | 0-2 | Kalju Nomme | Meistriliiga |
| 2026-03-21 | Kalju Nomme | 4-0 | Kuressaare | Meistriliiga |
| 2025-10-25 | Kuressaare | 0-1 | Kalju Nomme | Meistriliiga |
| 2025-08-31 | Kalju Nomme | 2-0 | Kuressaare | Meistriliiga |
| 2025-05-18 | Kalju Nomme | 4-0 | Kuressaare | Meistriliiga |
| 2025-04-12 | Kuressaare | 0-2 | Kalju Nomme | Meistriliiga |
Other Matchday 35 fixtures
- Vaprus vs Paide 2026-10-31
- Tammeka v Laagri — match page 2026-10-31
- Nõmme United vs FC Levadia Tallinn — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Flora Tallinn vs Trans Narva 2026-11-01
Before and after this match
- Kalju Nomme, previous: Paide vs Kalju Nomme prediction
- Kuressaare, previous: Vaprus v Kuressaare analysis