Updated

Meistriliiga · Matchday 36

FC Levadia Tallinn vs Kalju Nomme

· A. Le Coq Arena, Tallinn· Referee K. Kaivoja

Full time2 – 2

Alin prediction was FC Levadia Tallinn to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 2 – 0

11% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
FC Levadia TallinnDrawKalju Nomme

FC Levadia Tallinn vs Kalju Nomme: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceFC Levadia TallinnDrawKalju Nomme
Model67%20%13%
Market53%23%24%
Published57%22%21%
Edge+3%-1%-3%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.24 vs 0.90.
  • Better recent form: 6 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
  • The market prices FC Levadia Tallinn below our published probability: +3.4 percentage points of edge.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

FC Levadia Tallinn vs Kalju Nomme odds movement

Median bookmaker price on FC Levadia Tallinn, 9 snapshots since 2026-11-03.

Opened 1.60Now 1.71 +0.11
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
FC Levadia Tallinn1.601.71+0.11
Draw4.104.00-0.10
Kalju Nomme4.153.80-0.35

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

FC Levadia Tallinn and Kalju Nomme expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.24FC Levadia Tallinn
0.90Kalju Nomme
Total expected goals
3.14
Attack rating (FC Levadia Tallinn / Kalju Nomme)
1.61 / 0.99
Defence rating (FC Levadia Tallinn / Kalju Nomme)
0.66 / 0.79

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

FC Levadia Tallinn vs Kalju Nomme score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 5.2% 3.0% 1.8% 0.5% 0.1% 1 8.9% 9.6% 3.9% 1.2% 0.3% 2 10.9% 9.8% 4.4% 1.3% 0.4% 3 8.1% 7.3% 3.3% 1.0% 0.3% 4+ 7.7% 6.9% 3.1% 0.9% 0.3%

Rows: FC Levadia Tallinn goals. Columns: Kalju Nomme goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

FC Levadia Tallinn vs Kalju Nomme goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%
Over 1.5 83%
Over 2.5 61%
Over 3.5 38%
Both teams to score
54%
No goals (0–0)
5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for FC Levadia Tallinn vs Kalju Nomme

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2FC Levadia Tallinn57%1.76
Draw22%4.51
Kalju Nomme21%4.72
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.561%1.65
Under 2.539%2.54
Both teams to scoreYes54%1.86
No46%2.16
Double chance1X (FC Levadia Tallinn or draw)79%1.27
12 (either side)78%1.28
X2 (draw or Kalju Nomme)43%2.31
Handicap -1FC Levadia Tallinn win by 2+44%2.25
Push (exactly one goal)23%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

FC Levadia Tallinn and Kalju Nomme recent form

FC Levadia Tallinn 6W 0D 0L
Kalju Nomme 3W 1D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

FC Levadia Tallinn at home

Record (W-D-L)
13-3-1
Win rate
76%
Goals for / match
3.00
Goals against / match
0.53
Clean sheets
10 of 17
  • They have won 28 of their 35 league games this season, scoring 2.7 goals per match.
  • They average 3.0 goals per game at home against 2.4 on the road.
  • They have kept 13 clean sheets in 35 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 10 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 6 penalties (67%).

Kalju Nomme away

Record (W-D-L)
9-3-5
Win rate
53%
Goals for / match
1.41
Goals against / match
0.88
Clean sheets
8 of 17
  • They have won 18 of their 35 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
  • They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.4 on the road.
  • They have kept 12 clean sheets in 35 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 6 of 35 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
  • They have converted 6 of 6 penalties (100%).
  • 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: FC Levadia Tallinn at home only, Kalju Nomme away only.

FC Levadia Tallinn vs Kalju Nomme head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: FC Levadia Tallinn 5 · draws 3 · Kalju Nomme 2.

FC Levadia TallinnDrawsKalju Nomme
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-08-30Kalju Nomme2-3FC Levadia TallinnMeistriliiga
2026-06-20FC Levadia Tallinn1-1Kalju NommeMeistriliiga
2026-04-12Kalju Nomme1-1FC Levadia TallinnMeistriliiga
2025-09-21Kalju Nomme2-1FC Levadia TallinnMeistriliiga
2025-06-21FC Levadia Tallinn3-1Kalju NommeMeistriliiga
2025-05-24Kalju Nomme3-3FC Levadia TallinnCup
2025-05-04Kalju Nomme2-0FC Levadia TallinnMeistriliiga
2025-03-30FC Levadia Tallinn2-1Kalju NommeMeistriliiga
2024-10-27Kalju Nomme0-4FC Levadia TallinnMeistriliiga
2024-08-25FC Levadia Tallinn3-0Kalju NommeMeistriliiga

Other Matchday 36 fixtures

Before and after this match