Kuressaare vs Nõmme United: model vs market
| Source | Kuressaare | Draw | Nõmme United |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 43% | 28% | 29% |
| Market | 30% | 26% | 44% |
| Published | 33% | 27% | 40% |
| Edge | +3% | +1% | -4% |
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Kuressaare vs Nõmme United odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Nõmme United, 9 snapshots since 2026-11-03.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kuressaare | 2.59 | 3.02 | +0.43 |
| Draw | 3.62 | 3.45 | -0.17 |
| Nõmme United | 2.21 | 2.03 | -0.18 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Kuressaare and Nõmme United expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.66
- Attack rating (Kuressaare / Nõmme United)
- 0.65 / 1.01
- Defence rating (Kuressaare / Nõmme United)
- 0.86 / 1.29
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Kuressaare vs Nõmme United score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Kuressaare goals. Columns: Nõmme United goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Kuressaare vs Nõmme United goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 55%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Kuressaare vs Nõmme United
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Kuressaare | 33% | 3.03 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.76 | |
| Nõmme United | 40% | 2.47 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50% | 2.01 |
| Under 2.5 | 50% | 1.99 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55% | 1.83 |
| No | 45% | 2.21 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Kuressaare or draw) | 60% | 1.68 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or Nõmme United) | 67% | 1.49 | |
| Handicap -1 | Nõmme United win by 2+ | 12% | 8.04 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Kuressaare and Nõmme United recent form
Kuressaare
2W 1D 3L
Nõmme United
3W 0D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Kuressaare at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-3-8
- Win rate
- 35%
- Goals for / match
- 1.18
- Goals against / match
- 1.47
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 17
- They have won 10 of their 35 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 35 matches.
- They have failed to score in 17 of 35 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Nõmme United away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-1-10
- Win rate
- 35%
- Goals for / match
- 1.12
- Goals against / match
- 2.41
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 17
- They have won 12 of their 35 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 35 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Kuressaare at home only, Nõmme United away only.
Kuressaare vs Nõmme United head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Kuressaare 3 · draws 4 · Nõmme United 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | Nõmme United | 3-2 | Kuressaare | Meistriliiga |
| 2026-05-20 | Kuressaare | 2-1 | Nõmme United | Meistriliiga |
| 2026-04-25 | Nõmme United | 2-1 | Kuressaare | Meistriliiga |
| 2026-02-07 | Kuressaare | 3-3 | Nõmme United | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2025-01-19 | Kuressaare | 2-1 | Nõmme United | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2024-09-28 | Kuressaare | 4-1 | Nõmme United | Meistriliiga |
| 2024-09-01 | Nõmme United | 2-2 | Kuressaare | Meistriliiga |
| 2024-06-16 | Kuressaare | 1-1 | Nõmme United | Meistriliiga |
| 2024-05-04 | Nõmme United | 1-1 | Kuressaare | Meistriliiga |
| 2023-02-17 | Nõmme United | 3-1 | Kuressaare | Friendlies Clubs |
Other Matchday 36 fixtures
- FC Levadia Tallinn v Kalju Nomme — match page 2026-11-07
- Trans Narva vs Laagri — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Paide v Flora Tallinn — match page 2026-11-07
- Tammeka vs Vaprus — team news & stats 2026-11-07
Before and after this match
- Kuressaare, previous: Kalju Nomme vs Kuressaare prediction
- Nõmme United, previous: Nõmme United – FC Levadia Tallinn, 2026-10-31