Tammeka vs Vaprus: model vs market
| Source | Tammeka | Draw | Vaprus |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 66% | 19% | 15% |
| Market | 35% | 27% | 38% |
| Published | 43% | 25% | 32% |
| Edge | +8% | -2% | -6% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.47 vs 1.14.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Tammeka below our published probability: +7.6 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Tammeka vs Vaprus odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Tammeka, 9 snapshots since 2026-11-03.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tammeka | 2.21 | 2.55 | +0.34 |
| Draw | 3.65 | 3.30 | -0.35 |
| Vaprus | 2.55 | 2.39 | -0.16 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Tammeka and Vaprus expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.61
- Attack rating (Tammeka / Vaprus)
- 1.14 / 0.79
- Defence rating (Tammeka / Vaprus)
- 1.05 / 1.24
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Tammeka vs Vaprus score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Tammeka goals. Columns: Vaprus goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Tammeka vs Vaprus goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 63%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Tammeka vs Vaprus
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Tammeka | 43% | 2.33 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.97 | |
| Vaprus | 32% | 3.13 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 70% | 1.43 |
| Under 2.5 | 30% | 3.33 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63% | 1.59 |
| No | 37% | 2.71 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Tammeka or draw) | 68% | 1.47 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or Vaprus) | 57% | 1.75 | |
| Handicap -1 | Tammeka win by 2+ | 45% | 2.23 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Tammeka and Vaprus recent form
Tammeka
3W 0D 3L
Vaprus
0W 3D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Tammeka at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 10-1-6
- Win rate
- 59%
- Goals for / match
- 1.65
- Goals against / match
- 1.12
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 17
- They have won 17 of their 35 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 35 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 35 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 7 penalties (86%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Vaprus away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-2-12
- Win rate
- 18%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.41
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 17
- They have won 10 of their 35 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 35 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 35 matches.
- They have converted 8 of 9 penalties (89%).
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Tammeka at home only, Vaprus away only.
Tammeka vs Vaprus head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Tammeka 1 · draws 3 · Vaprus 6.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | Vaprus | 5-1 | Tammeka | Meistriliiga |
| 2026-06-13 | Tammeka | 0-0 | Vaprus | Meistriliiga |
| 2026-04-18 | Vaprus | 0-0 | Tammeka | Meistriliiga |
| 2025-09-16 | Tammeka | 1-4 | Vaprus | Meistriliiga |
| 2025-08-15 | Vaprus | 8-1 | Tammeka | Meistriliiga |
| 2025-05-17 | Vaprus | 2-1 | Tammeka | Meistriliiga |
| 2025-03-29 | Tammeka | 0-5 | Vaprus | Meistriliiga |
| 2025-02-16 | Tammeka | 6-1 | Vaprus | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2024-09-18 | Vaprus | 2-2 | Tammeka | Meistriliiga |
| 2024-08-02 | Tammeka | 0-1 | Vaprus | Meistriliiga |
Other Matchday 36 fixtures
- FC Levadia Tallinn v Kalju Nomme — match page 2026-11-07
- Trans Narva vs Laagri — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Kuressaare vs Nõmme United 2026-11-07
- Paide v Flora Tallinn — match page 2026-11-07
Before and after this match
- Tammeka, previous: Tammeka vs Laagri: odds and pick
- Vaprus, previous: Vaprus v Paide analysis