Trans Narva vs Laagri: model vs market
| Source | Trans Narva | Draw | Laagri |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 17% | 27% | 56% |
| Market | 30% | 25% | 45% |
| Published | 27% | 26% | 47% |
| Edge | -3% | +1% | +3% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.61 vs 0.79.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Laagri below our published probability: +2.8 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Trans Narva vs Laagri odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Laagri, 9 snapshots since 2026-11-03.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trans Narva | 2.75 | 2.95 | +0.20 |
| Draw | 3.52 | 3.60 | +0.08 |
| Laagri | 2.16 | 2.02 | -0.14 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Trans Narva and Laagri expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.41
- Attack rating (Trans Narva / Laagri)
- 0.57 / 0.93
- Defence rating (Trans Narva / Laagri)
- 1.26 / 0.80
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Trans Narva vs Laagri score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Trans Narva goals. Columns: Laagri goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Trans Narva vs Laagri goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 45%
- No goals (0–0)
- 10%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Trans Narva vs Laagri
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Trans Narva | 27% | 3.68 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.92 | |
| Laagri | 47% | 2.11 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 43% | 2.31 |
| Under 2.5 | 57% | 1.76 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 45% | 2.22 |
| No | 55% | 1.82 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Trans Narva or draw) | 53% | 1.90 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or Laagri) | 73% | 1.37 | |
| Handicap -1 | Laagri win by 2+ | 31% | 3.25 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Trans Narva and Laagri recent form
Trans Narva
0W 1D 5L
Laagri
4W 0D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Trans Narva at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-3-10
- Win rate
- 24%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.59
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 17
- They have won 5 of their 35 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They average 1.0 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 35 matches.
- They have failed to score in 17 of 35 matches.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Laagri away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-0-11
- Win rate
- 35%
- Goals for / match
- 1.18
- Goals against / match
- 1.76
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 17
- They have won 15 of their 35 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 35 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 35 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Trans Narva at home only, Laagri away only.
Trans Narva vs Laagri head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Trans Narva 4 · draws 0 · Laagri 6.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-10 | Laagri | 3-0 | Trans Narva | Meistriliiga |
| 2026-05-30 | Laagri | 3-0 | Trans Narva | Meistriliiga |
| 2026-03-07 | Trans Narva | 1-2 | Laagri | Meistriliiga |
| 2025-10-25 | Laagri | 1-0 | Trans Narva | Meistriliiga |
| 2025-09-14 | Trans Narva | 1-3 | Laagri | Meistriliiga |
| 2025-05-27 | Trans Narva | 4-2 | Laagri | Meistriliiga |
| 2025-03-29 | Laagri | 0-3 | Trans Narva | Meistriliiga |
| 2024-10-31 | Laagri | 0-3 | Trans Narva | Cup |
| 2023-09-23 | Trans Narva | 1-3 | Laagri | Meistriliiga |
| 2023-08-18 | Laagri | 0-2 | Trans Narva | Meistriliiga |
Other Matchday 36 fixtures
- FC Levadia Tallinn v Kalju Nomme — match page 2026-11-07
- Kuressaare vs Nõmme United 2026-11-07
- Paide v Flora Tallinn — match page 2026-11-07
- Tammeka vs Vaprus — team news & stats 2026-11-07
Before and after this match
- Trans Narva, previous: Flora Tallinn – Trans Narva, 2026-11-01
- Laagri, previous: Tammeka vs Laagri: odds and pick