Flora Tallinn vs Trans Narva preview
Flora Tallinn faces Trans Narva with a 63% chance of winning, while Trans Narva has only a 17% chance. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, backed by expected goals of 2.34 for Flora Tallinn and 1.15 for Trans Narva.
Flora Tallinn's recent form shows 2 wins in their last 5 matches, while Trans Narva has struggled with 1 draw and 4 losses. The model suggests a strong likelihood of Over 2.5 goals at 68% and both teams to score at 63%. However, if Flora Tallinn's form dips further or Trans Narva surprises with a stronger performance, the predictions could be off.
Flora Tallinn vs Trans Narva: model vs market
| Source | Flora Tallinn | Draw | Trans Narva |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 63% | 20% | 17% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 63% | 20% | 17% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.34 vs 1.15.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Flora Tallinn and Trans Narva expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.49
- Attack rating (Flora Tallinn / Trans Narva)
- 0.99 / 0.69
- Defence rating (Flora Tallinn / Trans Narva)
- 1.23 / 1.33
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Flora Tallinn vs Trans Narva score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Flora Tallinn goals. Columns: Trans Narva goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Flora Tallinn vs Trans Narva goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 63%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Flora Tallinn vs Trans Narva
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Flora Tallinn | 63% | 1.59 |
| Draw | 20% | 4.90 | |
| Trans Narva | 17% | 6.03 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68% | 1.48 |
| Under 2.5 | 32% | 3.10 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63% | 1.60 |
| No | 37% | 2.67 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Flora Tallinn or draw) | 83% | 1.20 |
| 12 (either side) | 80% | 1.26 | |
| X2 (draw or Trans Narva) | 37% | 2.71 | |
| Handicap -1 | Flora Tallinn win by 2+ | 42% | 2.40 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Flora Tallinn and Trans Narva recent form
Flora Tallinn
2W 0D 4L
Trans Narva
0W 2D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Flora Tallinn at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 10-0-7
- Win rate
- 59%
- Goals for / match
- 2.12
- Goals against / match
- 1.29
- Clean sheets
- 6 of 17
- They have won 19 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 6 penalties (100%).
Trans Narva away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-14
- Win rate
- 6%
- Goals for / match
- 0.53
- Goals against / match
- 2.88
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 17
- They have won 5 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They average 1.1 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 15 of 33 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Flora Tallinn at home only, Trans Narva away only.
Flora Tallinn vs Trans Narva head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Flora Tallinn 6 · draws 4 · Trans Narva 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Trans Narva | 2-2 | Flora Tallinn | Meistriliiga |
| 2026-05-16 | Trans Narva | 0-3 | Flora Tallinn | Meistriliiga |
| 2026-05-05 | Flora Tallinn | 1-0 | Trans Narva | Cup |
| 2026-04-22 | Flora Tallinn | 6-0 | Trans Narva | Meistriliiga |
| 2025-10-21 | Flora Tallinn | 4-0 | Trans Narva | Meistriliiga |
| 2025-08-02 | Trans Narva | 1-1 | Flora Tallinn | Meistriliiga |
| 2025-06-18 | Trans Narva | 1-2 | Flora Tallinn | Meistriliiga |
| 2025-03-01 | Flora Tallinn | 2-2 | Trans Narva | Meistriliiga |
| 2024-09-17 | Trans Narva | 1-1 | Flora Tallinn | Meistriliiga |
| 2024-08-03 | Flora Tallinn | 3-1 | Trans Narva | Meistriliiga |
Other Matchday 35 fixtures
- Vaprus vs Paide 2026-10-31
- Tammeka v Laagri — match page 2026-10-31
- Nõmme United vs FC Levadia Tallinn — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Kalju Nomme vs Kuressaare — team news & stats 2026-11-01
Before and after this match
- Flora Tallinn, previous: Kalju Nomme v Flora Tallinn analysis
- Trans Narva, previous: Trans Narva – Nõmme United, 2026-10-27