Nõmme United vs FC Levadia Tallinn preview
In the Meistriliiga fixture between Nõmme United and FC Levadia Tallinn, the 1X2 probabilities show FC Levadia Tallinn at 74% to win, while Nõmme United sits at just 10%. The most likely scoreline is 0-2, indicating a strong performance expected from FC Levadia Tallinn.
Nõmme United has struggled recently, with 4 losses in their last 6 matches, while FC Levadia Tallinn is in good form, winning 5 of their last 6 games. There is a 69% chance of Over 2.5 goals, and 55% for both teams to score, which could be affected if Nõmme United's defense holds up better than anticipated.
Nõmme United vs FC Levadia Tallinn: model vs market
| Source | Nõmme United | Draw | FC Levadia Tallinn |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 10% | 16% | 74% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 10% | 16% | 74% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.64 vs 0.89.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Nõmme United and FC Levadia Tallinn expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.53
- Attack rating (Nõmme United / FC Levadia Tallinn)
- 0.97 / 1.52
- Defence rating (Nõmme United / FC Levadia Tallinn)
- 1.27 / 0.52
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Nõmme United vs FC Levadia Tallinn score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Nõmme United goals. Columns: FC Levadia Tallinn goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Nõmme United vs FC Levadia Tallinn goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 55%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Nõmme United vs FC Levadia Tallinn
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Nõmme United | 10% | 10.49 |
| Draw | 16% | 6.09 | |
| FC Levadia Tallinn | 74% | 1.35 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69% | 1.46 |
| Under 2.5 | 31% | 3.17 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55% | 1.81 |
| No | 45% | 2.24 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Nõmme United or draw) | 26% | 3.85 |
| 12 (either side) | 84% | 1.20 | |
| X2 (draw or FC Levadia Tallinn) | 90% | 1.11 | |
| Handicap -1 | FC Levadia Tallinn win by 2+ | 54% | 1.87 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Nõmme United and FC Levadia Tallinn recent form
Nõmme United
2W 0D 4L
FC Levadia Tallinn
5W 1D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Nõmme United at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-0-11
- Win rate
- 35%
- Goals for / match
- 2.12
- Goals against / match
- 2.06
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 17
- They have won 11 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.1 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 33 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
FC Levadia Tallinn away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 14-3-0
- Win rate
- 82%
- Goals for / match
- 2.35
- Goals against / match
- 0.88
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 17
- They have won 26 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 2.7 goals per match.
- They average 3.1 goals per game at home against 2.4 on the road.
- They have kept 13 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 10 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 6 penalties (67%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Nõmme United at home only, FC Levadia Tallinn away only.
Nõmme United vs FC Levadia Tallinn head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Nõmme United 0 · draws 1 · FC Levadia Tallinn 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-09 | FC Levadia Tallinn | 5-0 | Nõmme United | Meistriliiga |
| 2026-06-17 | Nõmme United | 1-2 | FC Levadia Tallinn | Meistriliiga |
| 2026-04-04 | FC Levadia Tallinn | 1-1 | Nõmme United | Meistriliiga |
Other Matchday 35 fixtures
- Vaprus vs Paide 2026-10-31
- Tammeka v Laagri — match page 2026-10-31
- Kalju Nomme vs Kuressaare — team news & stats 2026-11-01
- Flora Tallinn vs Trans Narva 2026-11-01
Before and after this match
- Nõmme United, previous: Trans Narva – Nõmme United, 2026-10-27
- FC Levadia Tallinn, previous: FC Levadia Tallinn vs Tammeka prediction