Updated

Meistriliiga · Matchday 36

Paide vs Flora Tallinn

· Paide linnastaadion, Paide· Referee J. Jaanovits

Full time2 – 2

Alin prediction was Paide to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 1 – 0

11% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
PaideDrawFlora Tallinn

Paide vs Flora Tallinn: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourcePaideDrawFlora Tallinn
Model52%27%21%
Market36%26%38%
Published40%26%34%
Edge+4%0%-4%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.66 vs 0.98.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Paide below our published probability: +4.0 percentage points of edge.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Paide vs Flora Tallinn odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Paide, 9 snapshots since 2026-11-03.

Opened 2.45Now 2.50 +0.05
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Paide2.452.50+0.05
Draw3.653.55-0.10
Flora Tallinn2.302.37+0.07

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Paide and Flora Tallinn expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.66Paide
0.98Flora Tallinn
Total expected goals
2.64
Attack rating (Paide / Flora Tallinn)
0.88 / 1.04
Defence rating (Paide / Flora Tallinn)
0.68 / 1.08

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Paide vs Flora Tallinn score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 8.3% 5.8% 3.4% 1.1% 0.3% 1 10.7% 12.7% 5.7% 1.8% 0.6% 2 9.9% 9.6% 4.7% 1.5% 0.5% 3 5.5% 5.3% 2.6% 0.8% 0.3% 4+ 3.3% 3.2% 1.6% 0.5% 0.2%

Rows: Paide goals. Columns: Flora Tallinn goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Paide vs Flora Tallinn goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 92%
Over 1.5 75%
Over 2.5 49%
Over 3.5 27%
Both teams to score
52%
No goals (0–0)
8%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Paide vs Flora Tallinn

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Paide40%2.48
Draw26%3.87
Flora Tallinn34%2.95
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.549%2.03
Under 2.551%1.97
Both teams to scoreYes52%1.94
No48%2.07
Double chance1X (Paide or draw)66%1.51
12 (either side)74%1.35
X2 (draw or Flora Tallinn)60%1.67
Handicap -1Paide win by 2+29%3.45
Push (exactly one goal)23%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Paide and Flora Tallinn recent form

Paide 4W 0D 2L
Flora Tallinn 2W 0D 4L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Paide at home

Record (W-D-L)
10-1-6
Win rate
59%
Goals for / match
1.41
Goals against / match
1.06
Clean sheets
5 of 17
  • They have won 19 of their 35 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They have kept 9 clean sheets in 35 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 35 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
  • They have converted 8 of 8 penalties (100%).
  • 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Flora Tallinn away

Record (W-D-L)
9-1-7
Win rate
53%
Goals for / match
1.65
Goals against / match
1.59
Clean sheets
4 of 17
  • They have won 20 of their 35 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
  • They have kept 11 clean sheets in 35 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 35 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
  • They have converted 6 of 6 penalties (100%).

League matches this season before kick-off: Paide at home only, Flora Tallinn away only.

Paide vs Flora Tallinn head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Paide 5 · draws 1 · Flora Tallinn 4.

PaideDrawsFlora Tallinn
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-08-30Flora Tallinn1-2PaideMeistriliiga
2026-06-21Flora Tallinn1-2PaideMeistriliiga
2026-05-23Paide1-5Flora TallinnCup
2026-04-26Paide1-2Flora TallinnMeistriliiga
2026-02-20Paide1-3Flora TallinnFriendlies Clubs
2025-10-26Paide1-1Flora TallinnMeistriliiga
2025-06-21Paide2-1Flora TallinnMeistriliiga
2025-06-15Flora Tallinn1-2PaideMeistriliiga
2025-04-18Flora Tallinn1-0PaideMeistriliiga
2025-02-22Paide1-0Flora TallinnFriendlies Clubs

Other Matchday 36 fixtures

Before and after this match