Paide vs Kalju Nomme preview
In the Meistriliiga match between Paide and Kalju Nomme, the 1X2 probabilities show Paide at 43%, Kalju Nomme at 31%, and a draw at 26%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-0, with Paide having expected goals of 1.72 compared to Kalju Nomme's 0.99.
While both teams to score is at 53% and Over 2.5 goals is at 51%, a lack of scoring from Kalju Nomme could lead to a low-scoring match. Recent form also indicates Paide's strong performance with 5 wins in their last 6 matches, while Kalju Nomme has mixed results with 3 wins in their last 6.
Paide vs Kalju Nomme: model vs market
| Source | Paide | Draw | Kalju Nomme |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 53% | 26% | 20% |
| Market | 40% | 26% | 34% |
| Published | 43% | 26% | 31% |
| Edge | +3% | 0% | -3% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.72 vs 0.99.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
- The market prices Paide below our published probability: +3.4 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.30, recorded — the top price across the 6 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -0.7% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Paide vs Kalju Nomme odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Paide, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-21.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paide | 2.25 | 2.26 | +0.01 |
| Draw | 3.44 | 3.47 | +0.03 |
| Kalju Nomme | 2.61 | 2.62 | +0.01 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Paide and Kalju Nomme expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.71
- Attack rating (Paide / Kalju Nomme)
- 0.97 / 1.01
- Defence rating (Paide / Kalju Nomme)
- 0.71 / 1.00
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Paide vs Kalju Nomme score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Paide goals. Columns: Kalju Nomme goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Paide vs Kalju Nomme goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 53%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Paide vs Kalju Nomme
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Paide | 43% | 2.32 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.85 | |
| Kalju Nomme | 31% | 3.24 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51% | 1.97 |
| Under 2.5 | 49% | 2.03 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53% | 1.90 |
| No | 47% | 2.11 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Paide or draw) | 69% | 1.45 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or Kalju Nomme) | 57% | 1.76 | |
| Handicap -1 | Paide win by 2+ | 30% | 3.32 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Paide and Kalju Nomme recent form
Paide
5W 0D 1L
Kalju Nomme
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Paide at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 10-1-5
- Win rate
- 62%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 16
- They have won 18 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 8 of 8 penalties (100%).
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Kalju Nomme away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 8-3-5
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.38
- Goals against / match
- 0.94
- Clean sheets
- 7 of 16
- They have won 16 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.4 on the road.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Paide at home only, Kalju Nomme away only.
Paide vs Kalju Nomme head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Paide 4 · draws 5 · Kalju Nomme 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-28 | Kalju Nomme | 1-1 | Paide | Meistriliiga |
| 2026-06-14 | Kalju Nomme | 1-1 | Paide | Meistriliiga |
| 2026-04-19 | Paide | 1-0 | Kalju Nomme | Meistriliiga |
| 2026-02-14 | Paide | 2-1 | Kalju Nomme | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2025-11-08 | Kalju Nomme | 1-1 | Paide | Meistriliiga |
| 2025-09-14 | Paide | 1-1 | Kalju Nomme | Meistriliiga |
| 2025-05-28 | Kalju Nomme | 0-2 | Paide | Meistriliiga |
| 2025-03-09 | Paide | 4-0 | Kalju Nomme | Meistriliiga |
| 2025-03-05 | Kalju Nomme | 1-0 | Paide | Cup |
| 2024-10-06 | Paide | 1-1 | Kalju Nomme | Meistriliiga |
Other Matchday 34 fixtures
- Laagri vs Flora Tallinn 2026-10-21
- FC Levadia Tallinn vs Tammeka 2026-10-27
- Trans Narva v Nõmme United — match page 2026-10-27
- Vaprus vs Kuressaare — team news & stats 2026-10-28
Before and after this match
- Paide, previous: Kuressaare vs Paide: odds and pick
- Paide, next: Vaprus v Paide analysis
- Kalju Nomme, previous: Kalju Nomme v Flora Tallinn analysis
- Kalju Nomme, next: Kalju Nomme vs Kuressaare prediction