FC Levadia Tallinn vs Tammeka preview
In the Meistriliiga fixture, FC Levadia Tallinn has a strong 78% probability to win against Tammeka, who sits at just 8%. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, with a 10% chance according to our model. FC Levadia Tallinn has been in good form, recording 5 wins and 1 draw in their last 6 matches, while Tammeka has struggled with 3 losses in their last 6 games.
The model suggests a 73% chance of Over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance for both teams to score. However, Tammeka's recent form and their lack of wins against FC Levadia Tallinn in the last 10 meetings could lead to a different outcome than expected. FC Levadia Tallinn has 9 wins and 1 draw in those encounters, indicating a strong historical advantage.
FC Levadia Tallinn vs Tammeka: model vs market
| Source | FC Levadia Tallinn | Draw | Tammeka |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 80% | 13% | 7% |
| Market | 77% | 15% | 8% |
| Published | 78% | 14% | 8% |
| Edge | +1% | 0% | 0% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.95 vs 0.82.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.21, recorded — the top price across the 6 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -6.2% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
FC Levadia Tallinn vs Tammeka odds movement
Median bookmaker price on FC Levadia Tallinn, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-21.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Levadia Tallinn | 1.15 | 1.19 | +0.04 |
| Draw | 6.35 | 6.17 | -0.17 |
| Tammeka | 11.20 | 10.88 | -0.32 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
FC Levadia Tallinn and Tammeka expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.77
- Attack rating (FC Levadia Tallinn / Tammeka)
- 1.52 / 1.15
- Defence rating (FC Levadia Tallinn / Tammeka)
- 0.52 / 1.10
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
FC Levadia Tallinn vs Tammeka score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: FC Levadia Tallinn goals. Columns: Tammeka goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
FC Levadia Tallinn vs Tammeka goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 54%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for FC Levadia Tallinn vs Tammeka
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Levadia Tallinn | 78% | 1.29 |
| Draw | 14% | 6.93 | |
| Tammeka | 8% | 12.49 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 73% | 1.38 |
| Under 2.5 | 27% | 3.65 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54% | 1.86 |
| No | 46% | 2.16 | |
| Double chance | 1X (FC Levadia Tallinn or draw) | 92% | 1.09 |
| 12 (either side) | 86% | 1.17 | |
| X2 (draw or Tammeka) | 22% | 4.46 | |
| Handicap -1 | FC Levadia Tallinn win by 2+ | 61% | 1.64 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
FC Levadia Tallinn and Tammeka recent form
FC Levadia Tallinn
5W 1D 0L
Tammeka
2W 0D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
FC Levadia Tallinn at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 12-3-1
- Win rate
- 75%
- Goals for / match
- 3.06
- Goals against / match
- 0.50
- Clean sheets
- 10 of 16
- They have won 26 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 2.7 goals per match.
- They average 3.1 goals per game at home against 2.4 on the road.
- They have kept 13 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 10 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 6 penalties (67%).
Tammeka away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-1-9
- Win rate
- 41%
- Goals for / match
- 1.24
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 17
- They have won 16 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 6 penalties (83%).
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: FC Levadia Tallinn at home only, Tammeka away only.
FC Levadia Tallinn vs Tammeka head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: FC Levadia Tallinn 9 · draws 1 · Tammeka 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-17 | FC Levadia Tallinn | 6-0 | Tammeka | Meistriliiga |
| 2026-05-30 | Tammeka | 0-1 | FC Levadia Tallinn | Meistriliiga |
| 2026-04-22 | Tammeka | 1-2 | FC Levadia Tallinn | Meistriliiga |
| 2026-02-08 | FC Levadia Tallinn | 4-2 | Tammeka | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2025-10-05 | FC Levadia Tallinn | 3-0 | Tammeka | Meistriliiga |
| 2025-09-13 | Tammeka | 2-2 | FC Levadia Tallinn | Meistriliiga |
| 2025-04-26 | FC Levadia Tallinn | 4-0 | Tammeka | Meistriliiga |
| 2025-03-08 | Tammeka | 2-3 | FC Levadia Tallinn | Meistriliiga |
| 2025-01-18 | FC Levadia Tallinn | 3-1 | Tammeka | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2024-10-19 | Tammeka | 0-3 | FC Levadia Tallinn | Meistriliiga |
Other Matchday 34 fixtures
- Laagri vs Flora Tallinn 2026-10-21
- Trans Narva v Nõmme United — match page 2026-10-27
- Vaprus vs Kuressaare — team news & stats 2026-10-28
- Paide v Kalju Nomme — match page 2026-10-28
Before and after this match
- FC Levadia Tallinn, previous: FC Levadia Tallinn – Laagri, 2026-10-24
- FC Levadia Tallinn, next: Nõmme United – FC Levadia Tallinn, 2026-10-31
- Tammeka, previous: Tammeka vs Trans Narva: odds and pick
- Tammeka, next: Tammeka vs Laagri: odds and pick