Trans Narva vs Nõmme United preview
In the Meistriliiga fixture on 2026-10-27, Nõmme United has a 46% chance to win against Trans Narva, who has a 29% chance. The most likely scoreline from our model is 1-2, with a 9% probability. Both teams to score stands at 66%, while Over 2.5 goals is projected at 64%.
Trans Narva's recent form shows 5 games without a win (L-L-L-D-D-L), while Nõmme United has won 2 of their last 6 matches (W-W-L-L-L-L). Despite Trans Narva's strong head-to-head record of 5 wins in the last 8 encounters, their current form could lead to a different outcome. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions.
Trans Narva vs Nõmme United: model vs market
| Source | Trans Narva | Draw | Nõmme United |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 33% | 25% | 42% |
| Market | 24% | 24% | 52% |
| Published | 26% | 24% | 50% |
| Edge | +2% | 0% | -2% |
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.77, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -12.3% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Trans Narva vs Nõmme United odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Nõmme United, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-21.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trans Narva | 2.09 | 3.73 | +1.64 |
| Draw | 3.64 | 3.82 | +0.18 |
| Nõmme United | 2.80 | 1.75 | -1.05 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Trans Narva and Nõmme United expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.30
- Attack rating (Trans Narva / Nõmme United)
- 0.69 / 0.97
- Defence rating (Trans Narva / Nõmme United)
- 1.33 / 1.27
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Trans Narva vs Nõmme United score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Trans Narva goals. Columns: Nõmme United goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Trans Narva vs Nõmme United goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 66%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Trans Narva vs Nõmme United
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Trans Narva | 26% | 3.78 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.16 | |
| Nõmme United | 50% | 2.02 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64% | 1.56 |
| Under 2.5 | 36% | 2.78 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66% | 1.51 |
| No | 34% | 2.94 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Trans Narva or draw) | 50% | 1.98 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.32 | |
| X2 (draw or Nõmme United) | 74% | 1.36 | |
| Handicap -1 | Nõmme United win by 2+ | 23% | 4.33 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Trans Narva and Nõmme United recent form
Trans Narva
0W 2D 4L
Nõmme United
2W 0D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Trans Narva at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-3-9
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.06
- Goals against / match
- 1.62
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 16
- They have won 5 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They average 1.1 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 15 of 33 matches.
Nõmme United away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-1-10
- Win rate
- 31%
- Goals for / match
- 1.12
- Goals against / match
- 2.56
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 16
- They have won 11 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.1 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 33 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Trans Narva at home only, Nõmme United away only.
Trans Narva vs Nõmme United head-to-head
Last 8 meetings: Trans Narva 5 · draws 0 · Nõmme United 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | Nõmme United | 1-2 | Trans Narva | Meistriliiga |
| 2026-06-13 | Trans Narva | 1-2 | Nõmme United | Meistriliiga |
| 2026-04-11 | Nõmme United | 5-1 | Trans Narva | Meistriliiga |
| 2026-01-24 | Trans Narva | 3-4 | Nõmme United | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2024-09-21 | Nõmme United | 0-4 | Trans Narva | Meistriliiga |
| 2024-07-26 | Trans Narva | 2-1 | Nõmme United | Meistriliiga |
| 2024-05-23 | Nõmme United | 1-3 | Trans Narva | Meistriliiga |
| 2024-03-30 | Trans Narva | 2-0 | Nõmme United | Meistriliiga |
Other Matchday 34 fixtures
- Laagri vs Flora Tallinn 2026-10-21
- FC Levadia Tallinn vs Tammeka 2026-10-27
- Vaprus vs Kuressaare — team news & stats 2026-10-28
- Paide v Kalju Nomme — match page 2026-10-28
Before and after this match
- Trans Narva, previous: Tammeka vs Trans Narva: odds and pick
- Trans Narva, next: Flora Tallinn – Trans Narva, 2026-11-01
- Nõmme United, previous: Nõmme United vs Vaprus prediction
- Nõmme United, next: Nõmme United – FC Levadia Tallinn, 2026-10-31