Kalju Nomme vs Flora Tallinn preview
In the Meistriliiga fixture between Kalju Nomme and Flora Tallinn, the 1X2 probabilities show Kalju Nomme at 53%, while Flora Tallinn sits at 24%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-1, with a 9% chance. Kalju Nomme has an expected goals figure of 2.12, compared to Flora Tallinn's 1.39, suggesting a potential advantage for the home side.
However, Kalju Nomme's recent form includes two losses in their last three matches, while Flora Tallinn has won three of their last five. This inconsistency could impact the outcome. The model also indicates a strong likelihood for Over 2.5 goals at 68% and both teams to score at 67%, which adds another layer to the prediction.
Kalju Nomme vs Flora Tallinn: model vs market
| Source | Kalju Nomme | Draw | Flora Tallinn |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 53% | 23% | 24% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 53% | 23% | 24% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.12 vs 1.39.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Kalju Nomme and Flora Tallinn expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.51
- Attack rating (Kalju Nomme / Flora Tallinn)
- 0.97 / 0.99
- Defence rating (Kalju Nomme / Flora Tallinn)
- 1.02 / 1.25
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Kalju Nomme vs Flora Tallinn score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Kalju Nomme goals. Columns: Flora Tallinn goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Kalju Nomme vs Flora Tallinn goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 67%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Kalju Nomme vs Flora Tallinn
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Kalju Nomme | 53% | 1.88 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.42 | |
| Flora Tallinn | 24% | 4.14 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68% | 1.47 |
| Under 2.5 | 32% | 3.14 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67% | 1.49 |
| No | 33% | 3.03 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Kalju Nomme or draw) | 76% | 1.32 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.29 | |
| X2 (draw or Flora Tallinn) | 47% | 2.14 | |
| Handicap -1 | Kalju Nomme win by 2+ | 33% | 3.07 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Kalju Nomme and Flora Tallinn recent form
Kalju Nomme
2W 1D 3L
Flora Tallinn
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Kalju Nomme at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-3-6
- Win rate
- 44%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.12
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 16
- They have won 15 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Flora Tallinn away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 9-1-5
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 1.73
- Goals against / match
- 1.47
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 15
- They have won 18 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Kalju Nomme at home only, Flora Tallinn away only.
Kalju Nomme vs Flora Tallinn head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Kalju Nomme 4 · draws 0 · Flora Tallinn 6.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Flora Tallinn | 2-1 | Kalju Nomme | Meistriliiga |
| 2026-05-10 | Kalju Nomme | 0-1 | Flora Tallinn | Meistriliiga |
| 2026-03-15 | Flora Tallinn | 0-1 | Kalju Nomme | Meistriliiga |
| 2025-09-28 | Kalju Nomme | 3-1 | Flora Tallinn | Meistriliiga |
| 2025-07-06 | Flora Tallinn | 1-0 | Kalju Nomme | Meistriliiga |
| 2025-04-27 | Flora Tallinn | 2-3 | Kalju Nomme | Meistriliiga |
| 2025-04-05 | Kalju Nomme | 1-2 | Flora Tallinn | Meistriliiga |
| 2025-02-01 | Flora Tallinn | 1-0 | Kalju Nomme | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2024-10-23 | Flora Tallinn | 3-2 | Kalju Nomme | Meistriliiga |
| 2024-09-25 | Kalju Nomme | 3-0 | Flora Tallinn | Meistriliiga |
Other Matchday 33 fixtures
- Tammeka v Trans Narva — match page 2026-10-23
- Nõmme United vs Vaprus — team news & stats 2026-10-23
- Kuressaare vs Paide — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- FC Levadia Tallinn vs Laagri 2026-10-24
Before and after this match
- Kalju Nomme, previous: Nõmme United v Kalju Nomme analysis
- Flora Tallinn, previous: Laagri vs Flora Tallinn: odds and pick