Updated

Meistriliiga · Matchday 32

Paide vs Trans Narva

· Paide linnastaadion, Paide· Referee M. Pukk

Full time2 – 1

Alin prediction was Paide to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 0

13% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
PaideDrawTrans Narva

Paide vs Trans Narva: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourcePaideDrawTrans Narva
Model66%23%12%
Market61%22%17%
Published62%22%16%
Edge+5%+1%-6%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.94 vs 0.70.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Paide below the model: +5.1 percentage points of edge.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Paide vs Trans Narva odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Paide, 9 snapshots since 2026-10-14.

Opened 1.55Now 1.48 -0.07
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Paide1.551.48-0.07
Draw4.104.10+0.00
Trans Narva4.925.15+0.23

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Paide and Trans Narva expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.94Paide
0.70Trans Narva
Total expected goals
2.64
Attack rating (Paide / Trans Narva)
0.97 / 0.66
Defence rating (Paide / Trans Narva)
0.77 / 1.15

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Paide vs Trans Narva score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 8.1% 4.0% 1.8% 0.4% 0.1% 1 12.9% 10.7% 3.4% 0.8% 0.2% 2 13.4% 9.4% 3.3% 0.8% 0.2% 3 8.7% 6.1% 2.1% 0.5% 0.1% 4+ 6.5% 4.6% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1%

Rows: Paide goals. Columns: Trans Narva goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Paide vs Trans Narva goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 92%
Over 1.5 75%
Over 2.5 49%
Over 3.5 27%
Both teams to score
44%
No goals (0–0)
8%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Paide vs Trans Narva

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Paide62%1.62
Draw22%4.52
Trans Narva16%6.24
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.549%2.04
Under 2.551%1.96
Both teams to scoreYes44%2.27
No56%1.79
Double chance1X (Paide or draw)84%1.19
12 (either side)78%1.28
X2 (draw or Trans Narva)38%2.62
Handicap -1Paide win by 2+41%2.44
Push (exactly one goal)25%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Paide and Trans Narva recent form

Paide 4W 0D 2L
Trans Narva 0W 3D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Paide at home

Record (W-D-L)
9-1-5
Win rate
60%
Goals for / match
1.47
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
5 of 15
  • They have won 16 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • They have kept 7 clean sheets in 31 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 31 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
  • They have converted 8 of 8 penalties (100%).
  • 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Trans Narva away

Record (W-D-L)
1-2-12
Win rate
7%
Goals for / match
0.47
Goals against / match
2.80
Clean sheets
1 of 15
  • They have won 5 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
  • They average 1.1 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 31 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 15 of 31 matches.
  • 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Paide at home only, Trans Narva away only.

Paide vs Trans Narva head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Paide 4 · draws 2 · Trans Narva 4.

PaideDrawsTrans Narva
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-08-16Trans Narva1-1PaideMeistriliiga
2026-05-20Trans Narva1-0PaideMeistriliiga
2026-03-15Paide1-0Trans NarvaMeistriliiga
2026-02-07Trans Narva1-1PaideFriendlies Clubs
2025-09-27Trans Narva2-3PaideMeistriliiga
2025-07-20Paide2-0Trans NarvaMeistriliiga
2025-05-31Paide0-1Trans NarvaMeistriliiga
2025-03-15Trans Narva1-0PaideMeistriliiga
2025-01-18Paide1-2Trans NarvaFriendlies Clubs
2024-09-29Trans Narva0-3PaideMeistriliiga

Other Matchday 32 fixtures

Before and after this match