Kuressaare vs FC Levadia Tallinn: model vs market
| Source | Kuressaare | Draw | FC Levadia Tallinn |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 12% | 22% | 66% |
| Market | 9% | 18% | 73% |
| Published | 10% | 19% | 71% |
| Edge | +3% | +4% | -7% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.03 vs 0.75.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Kuressaare vs FC Levadia Tallinn odds movement
Median bookmaker price on FC Levadia Tallinn, 9 snapshots since 2026-10-14.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kuressaare | 11.20 | 10.25 | -0.95 |
| Draw | 6.20 | 4.90 | -1.30 |
| FC Levadia Tallinn | 1.19 | 1.23 | +0.04 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Kuressaare and FC Levadia Tallinn expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.78
- Attack rating (Kuressaare / FC Levadia Tallinn)
- 0.82 / 1.64
- Defence rating (Kuressaare / FC Levadia Tallinn)
- 0.90 / 0.53
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Kuressaare vs FC Levadia Tallinn score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Kuressaare goals. Columns: FC Levadia Tallinn goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Kuressaare vs FC Levadia Tallinn goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 47%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Kuressaare vs FC Levadia Tallinn
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Kuressaare | 10% | 10.52 |
| Draw | 19% | 5.23 | |
| FC Levadia Tallinn | 71% | 1.40 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53% | 1.90 |
| Under 2.5 | 47% | 2.11 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 47% | 2.13 |
| No | 53% | 1.88 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Kuressaare or draw) | 29% | 3.49 |
| 12 (either side) | 81% | 1.24 | |
| X2 (draw or FC Levadia Tallinn) | 90% | 1.11 | |
| Handicap -1 | FC Levadia Tallinn win by 2+ | 42% | 2.36 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Kuressaare and FC Levadia Tallinn recent form
Kuressaare
3W 1D 2L
FC Levadia Tallinn
5W 1D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Kuressaare at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-3-6
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.47
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 15
- They have won 10 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 14 of 31 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
FC Levadia Tallinn away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 13-3-0
- Win rate
- 81%
- Goals for / match
- 2.38
- Goals against / match
- 0.94
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 16
- They have won 24 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 2.7 goals per match.
- They average 3.1 goals per game at home against 2.4 on the road.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 10 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 6 penalties (67%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Kuressaare at home only, FC Levadia Tallinn away only.
Kuressaare vs FC Levadia Tallinn head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Kuressaare 0 · draws 1 · FC Levadia Tallinn 9.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | FC Levadia Tallinn | 4-0 | Kuressaare | Meistriliiga |
| 2026-05-02 | Kuressaare | 1-2 | FC Levadia Tallinn | Meistriliiga |
| 2026-03-08 | FC Levadia Tallinn | 2-0 | Kuressaare | Meistriliiga |
| 2025-10-18 | Kuressaare | 0-3 | FC Levadia Tallinn | Meistriliiga |
| 2025-08-01 | FC Levadia Tallinn | 2-0 | Kuressaare | Meistriliiga |
| 2025-06-14 | Kuressaare | 1-2 | FC Levadia Tallinn | Meistriliiga |
| 2025-04-08 | FC Levadia Tallinn | 2-1 | Kuressaare | Meistriliiga |
| 2024-09-17 | Kuressaare | 0-1 | FC Levadia Tallinn | Meistriliiga |
| 2024-07-21 | FC Levadia Tallinn | 0-0 | Kuressaare | Meistriliiga |
| 2024-06-01 | FC Levadia Tallinn | 2-0 | Kuressaare | Meistriliiga |
Other Matchday 32 fixtures
- Nõmme United vs Kalju Nomme — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Laagri v Vaprus — match page 2026-10-18
- Paide vs Trans Narva — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- Flora Tallinn vs Tammeka 2026-10-18
Before and after this match
- Kuressaare, previous: Trans Narva vs Kuressaare: odds and pick
- Kuressaare, next: Kuressaare vs Paide: odds and pick
- FC Levadia Tallinn, previous: Flora Tallinn – FC Levadia Tallinn, 2026-10-15
- FC Levadia Tallinn, next: FC Levadia Tallinn – Laagri, 2026-10-24