Trans Narva vs Kuressaare preview
In the Meistriliiga fixture, Trans Narva faces Kuressaare with 33% chances for a win for Trans Narva, 30% for a draw, and 37% for Kuressaare. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, occurring at a 9% probability. Trans Narva has struggled recently, recording 1 draw and 5 losses in their last 6 matches, while Kuressaare has 1 win, 2 draws, and 3 losses in their last 6.
The expected goals for Trans Narva are 1.20, while Kuressaare has a slightly higher expected goals of 1.27. With 52% for both teams to score and 45% for Over 2.5 goals, there is potential for a competitive match. However, the recent form of Trans Narva could lead to an unexpected outcome.
Trans Narva vs Kuressaare: model vs market
| Source | Trans Narva | Draw | Kuressaare |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 33% | 30% | 37% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 33% | 30% | 37% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Trans Narva and Kuressaare expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.47
- Attack rating (Trans Narva / Kuressaare)
- 0.64 / 0.78
- Defence rating (Trans Narva / Kuressaare)
- 1.17 / 1.07
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Trans Narva vs Kuressaare score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Trans Narva goals. Columns: Kuressaare goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Trans Narva vs Kuressaare goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 52%
- No goals (0–0)
- 10%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Trans Narva vs Kuressaare
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Trans Narva | 33% | 2.99 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.36 | |
| Kuressaare | 37% | 2.72 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 45% | 2.23 |
| Under 2.5 | 55% | 1.81 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52% | 1.94 |
| No | 48% | 2.06 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Trans Narva or draw) | 63% | 1.58 |
| 12 (either side) | 70% | 1.42 | |
| X2 (draw or Kuressaare) | 67% | 1.50 | |
| Handicap -1 | Kuressaare win by 2+ | 17% | 5.96 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Trans Narva and Kuressaare recent form
Trans Narva
0W 2D 4L
Kuressaare
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Trans Narva at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-3-8
- Win rate
- 27%
- Goals for / match
- 1.13
- Goals against / match
- 1.67
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 15
- They have won 5 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They average 1.1 goals per game at home against 0.4 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 14 of 29 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Kuressaare away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-2-10
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 0.87
- Goals against / match
- 1.80
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 15
- They have won 8 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 13 of 28 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Trans Narva at home only, Kuressaare away only.
Trans Narva vs Kuressaare head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Trans Narva 1 · draws 4 · Kuressaare 5.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Kuressaare | 3-1 | Trans Narva | Meistriliiga |
| 2026-06-16 | Kuressaare | 0-0 | Trans Narva | Meistriliiga |
| 2026-04-18 | Trans Narva | 1-2 | Kuressaare | Meistriliiga |
| 2026-02-21 | Kuressaare | 2-2 | Trans Narva | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2025-09-20 | Kuressaare | 0-0 | Trans Narva | Meistriliiga |
| 2025-07-05 | Trans Narva | 3-2 | Kuressaare | Meistriliiga |
| 2025-04-27 | Kuressaare | 2-1 | Trans Narva | Meistriliiga |
| 2025-03-08 | Trans Narva | 0-2 | Kuressaare | Meistriliiga |
| 2025-02-08 | Trans Narva | 1-1 | Kuressaare | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2024-11-09 | Trans Narva | 0-2 | Kuressaare | Meistriliiga |
Other Matchday 31 fixtures
- Vaprus vs Kalju Nomme 2026-10-13
- Laagri v Nõmme United — match page 2026-10-13
- Paide vs Tammeka 2026-10-14
- Flora Tallinn v FC Levadia Tallinn — match page 2026-10-15
Before and after this match
- Trans Narva, previous: Vaprus – Trans Narva, 2026-10-10
- Kuressaare, previous: Kuressaare vs Flora Tallinn prediction