Gnistan vs Inter Turku preview
Gnistan hosts Inter Turku in the Veikkausliiga, with the model showing a 46% chance for an Inter Turku win compared to 27% for Gnistan. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, with a 10% probability. Both teams to score stands at 44%, while Over 2.5 goals is at 36%.
Gnistan’s recent form shows two wins and three draws in their last five matches. In contrast, Inter Turku has won three of their last five. The expected goals suggest Gnistan could score 1.19 while Inter Turku is at 0.94. The confidence grade is C, indicating that while the probabilities are blended with market odds, the outcome could still be uncertain.
Gnistan vs Inter Turku: model vs market
| Source | Gnistan | Draw | Inter Turku |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 40% | 32% | 28% |
| Market | 23% | 26% | 52% |
| Published | 27% | 27% | 46% |
| Edge | +18% | +6% | -24% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.82, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Gnistan vs Inter Turku odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Inter Turku, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-01.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gnistan | 4.08 | 4.00 | -0.08 |
| Draw | 3.60 | 3.50 | -0.10 |
| Inter Turku | 1.79 | 1.75 | -0.04 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Gnistan and Inter Turku expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.13
- Attack rating (Gnistan / Inter Turku)
- 1.08 / 0.79
- Defence rating (Gnistan / Inter Turku)
- 0.86 / 0.71
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Gnistan vs Inter Turku score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Gnistan goals. Columns: Inter Turku goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Gnistan vs Inter Turku goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 44%
- No goals (0–0)
- 13%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Gnistan vs Inter Turku
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Gnistan | 27% | 3.71 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.65 | |
| Inter Turku | 46% | 2.19 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 36% | 2.78 |
| Under 2.5 | 64% | 1.56 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 44% | 2.28 |
| No | 56% | 1.78 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Gnistan or draw) | 54% | 1.84 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.38 | |
| X2 (draw or Inter Turku) | 73% | 1.37 | |
| Handicap -1 | Inter Turku win by 2+ | 10% | 9.67 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Gnistan and Inter Turku recent form
Gnistan
3W 3D 0L
Inter Turku
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Gnistan at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-4-3
- Win rate
- 46%
- Goals for / match
- 1.77
- Goals against / match
- 1.46
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 13
- They have won 11 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 25 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 47% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Inter Turku away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-4-2
- Win rate
- 54%
- Goals for / match
- 1.54
- Goals against / match
- 0.92
- Clean sheets
- 6 of 13
- They have won 13 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
- They have kept 13 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 25 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Gnistan at home only, Inter Turku away only.
Gnistan vs Inter Turku head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Gnistan 2 · draws 2 · Inter Turku 6.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-26 | Inter Turku | 1-2 | Gnistan | Veikkausliiga |
| 2026-05-05 | Gnistan | 2-0 | Inter Turku | Veikkausliiga |
| 2026-01-17 | Gnistan | 0-3 | Inter Turku | League Cup |
| 2025-10-22 | Inter Turku | 2-1 | Gnistan | Veikkausliiga |
| 2025-09-13 | Gnistan | 0-2 | Inter Turku | Veikkausliiga |
| 2025-06-27 | Gnistan | 2-2 | Inter Turku | Veikkausliiga |
| 2025-04-12 | Inter Turku | 3-0 | Gnistan | Veikkausliiga |
| 2025-02-15 | Inter Turku | 2-0 | Gnistan | League Cup |
| 2024-10-19 | Inter Turku | 3-2 | Gnistan | Veikkausliiga |
| 2024-07-22 | Inter Turku | 2-2 | Gnistan | Veikkausliiga |
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