HJK Helsinki vs VPS preview
HJK Helsinki hosts VPS in the Veikkausliiga, with a 56% probability for HJK to win according to the model 1X2. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which aligns with HJK's expected goals of 1.28 compared to VPS's 0.81.
However, the match could see different outcomes due to VPS's potential for an upset, as they have won 3 of the last 10 encounters. Both teams to score stands at 41%, indicating a chance for VPS to find the net. Additionally, the market suggests a 35% likelihood for Over 2.5 goals, meaning a low-scoring affair is also possible.
HJK Helsinki vs VPS: model vs market
| Source | HJK Helsinki | Draw | VPS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 46% | 31% | 22% |
| Market | 59% | 23% | 18% |
| Published | 56% | 25% | 19% |
| Edge | -13% | +8% | +5% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.28 vs 0.81.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.60, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
HJK Helsinki vs VPS odds movement
Median bookmaker price on HJK Helsinki, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-01.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| HJK Helsinki | 1.55 | 1.55 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 4.00 | 4.00 | +0.00 |
| VPS | 5.20 | 5.20 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
HJK Helsinki and VPS expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.09
- Attack rating (HJK Helsinki / VPS)
- 0.98 / 0.77
- Defence rating (HJK Helsinki / VPS)
- 0.76 / 0.84
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
HJK Helsinki vs VPS score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: HJK Helsinki goals. Columns: VPS goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
HJK Helsinki vs VPS goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 41%
- No goals (0–0)
- 14%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for HJK Helsinki vs VPS
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | HJK Helsinki | 56% | 1.78 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.98 | |
| VPS | 19% | 5.31 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 35% | 2.88 |
| Under 2.5 | 65% | 1.53 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 41% | 2.42 |
| No | 59% | 1.70 | |
| Double chance | 1X (HJK Helsinki or draw) | 81% | 1.23 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or VPS) | 44% | 2.28 | |
| Handicap -1 | HJK Helsinki win by 2+ | 22% | 4.55 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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HJK Helsinki and VPS recent form
HJK Helsinki
3W 2D 1L
VPS
2W 0D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
HJK Helsinki at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-2-3
- Win rate
- 58%
- Goals for / match
- 1.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 12
- They have won 12 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 25 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
VPS away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-3-5
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 0.92
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 12
- They have won 10 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 25 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 5 penalties (40%).
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: HJK Helsinki at home only, VPS away only.
HJK Helsinki vs VPS head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: HJK Helsinki 6 · draws 1 · VPS 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-18 | HJK Helsinki | 2-1 | VPS | Veikkausliiga |
| 2026-05-22 | VPS | 2-1 | HJK Helsinki | Veikkausliiga |
| 2025-07-05 | VPS | 0-2 | HJK Helsinki | Veikkausliiga |
| 2025-04-26 | HJK Helsinki | 3-1 | VPS | Veikkausliiga |
| 2024-09-20 | VPS | 1-1 | HJK Helsinki | Veikkausliiga |
| 2024-09-01 | VPS | 1-3 | HJK Helsinki | Veikkausliiga |
| 2024-05-17 | HJK Helsinki | 1-2 | VPS | Veikkausliiga |
| 2023-10-08 | VPS | 3-2 | HJK Helsinki | Veikkausliiga |
| 2023-04-19 | HJK Helsinki | 4-0 | VPS | Veikkausliiga |
| 2023-04-15 | VPS | 0-1 | HJK Helsinki | Veikkausliiga |
Other Championship Group - 26 fixtures
- Gnistan v Inter Turku — match page 2026-10-07
- KuPS vs AC Oulu 2026-10-08