KuPS vs AC Oulu preview
In the Veikkausliiga fixture between KuPS and AC Oulu, the model gives KuPS a 56% chance to win, making them the favorites. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which aligns with the expected goals of 1.10 for KuPS and 0.57 for AC Oulu. However, the confidence grade is C, indicating some uncertainty, and recent form shows KuPS has been inconsistent, with two losses in their last three matches.
For punters considering Over 2.5 goals, the market suggests only a 23% likelihood, while both teams to score has a 30% chance. AC Oulu’s recent form is concerning, with four losses in their last six games. This could impact their ability to find the net, making the predicted scoreline more plausible.
KuPS vs AC Oulu: model vs market
| Source | KuPS | Draw | AC Oulu |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 47% | 35% | 18% |
| Market | 59% | 24% | 17% |
| Published | 56% | 27% | 18% |
| Edge | -12% | +11% | 0% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.10 vs 0.57.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.60, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
KuPS vs AC Oulu odds movement
Median bookmaker price on KuPS, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-01.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| KuPS | 1.57 | 1.57 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.90 | 3.90 | +0.00 |
| AC Oulu | 5.30 | 5.30 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
KuPS and AC Oulu expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.67
- Attack rating (KuPS / AC Oulu)
- 0.79 / 0.56
- Defence rating (KuPS / AC Oulu)
- 0.74 / 0.90
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
KuPS vs AC Oulu score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: KuPS goals. Columns: AC Oulu goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
KuPS vs AC Oulu goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 30%
- No goals (0–0)
- 20%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for KuPS vs AC Oulu
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | KuPS | 56% | 1.79 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.77 | |
| AC Oulu | 18% | 5.71 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 23% | 4.26 |
| Under 2.5 | 77% | 1.31 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 30% | 3.32 |
| No | 70% | 1.43 | |
| Double chance | 1X (KuPS or draw) | 82% | 1.21 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or AC Oulu) | 44% | 2.27 | |
| Handicap -1 | KuPS win by 2+ | 21% | 4.86 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 27% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
KuPS and AC Oulu recent form
KuPS
2W 2D 2L
AC Oulu
1W 1D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
KuPS at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-5-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.75
- Goals against / match
- 1.17
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 12
- They have won 13 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 25 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
AC Oulu away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-2-6
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.08
- Goals against / match
- 1.42
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 12
- They have won 10 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 25 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: KuPS at home only, AC Oulu away only.
KuPS vs AC Oulu head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: KuPS 5 · draws 1 · AC Oulu 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | AC Oulu | 2-0 | KuPS | Veikkausliiga |
| 2026-04-22 | KuPS | 3-2 | AC Oulu | Veikkausliiga |
| 2026-02-28 | AC Oulu | 5-0 | KuPS | League Cup |
| 2025-12-05 | KuPS | 1-2 | AC Oulu | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2025-07-04 | AC Oulu | 2-2 | KuPS | Veikkausliiga |
| 2025-04-12 | KuPS | 1-0 | AC Oulu | Veikkausliiga |
| 2025-03-25 | KuPS | 2-0 | AC Oulu | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2025-02-22 | KuPS | 2-1 | AC Oulu | League Cup |
| 2024-06-28 | AC Oulu | 1-0 | KuPS | Veikkausliiga |
| 2024-06-08 | KuPS | 4-1 | AC Oulu | Veikkausliiga |
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