Mariehamn vs Ilves: model vs market
| Source | Mariehamn | Draw | Ilves |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 20% | 27% | 54% |
| Market | 32% | 26% | 42% |
| Published | 29% | 26% | 45% |
| Edge | -12% | +1% | +11% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.65 vs 0.91.
- The market prices Ilves below the model: +11.2 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.26, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
Mariehamn vs Ilves odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Ilves, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-01.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mariehamn | 3.04 | 2.91 | -0.13 |
| Draw | 3.60 | 3.58 | -0.02 |
| Ilves | 2.10 | 2.18 | +0.08 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Mariehamn and Ilves expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.56
- Attack rating (Mariehamn / Ilves)
- 0.85 / 1.07
- Defence rating (Mariehamn / Ilves)
- 1.11 / 0.69
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Mariehamn vs Ilves score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Mariehamn goals. Columns: Ilves goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Mariehamn vs Ilves goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 50%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Mariehamn vs Ilves
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Mariehamn | 29% | 3.48 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.83 | |
| Ilves | 45% | 2.21 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 47% | 2.12 |
| Under 2.5 | 53% | 1.90 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50% | 2.02 |
| No | 50% | 1.98 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Mariehamn or draw) | 55% | 1.82 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or Ilves) | 71% | 1.40 | |
| Handicap -1 | Ilves win by 2+ | 30% | 3.36 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Mariehamn and Ilves recent form
Mariehamn
4W 0D 2L
Ilves
3W 0D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Mariehamn at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-4-5
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 0.83
- Goals against / match
- 1.42
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 12
- They have won 4 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 24 matches.
- They have failed to score in 12 of 24 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Ilves away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-3-7
- Win rate
- 17%
- Goals for / match
- 1.67
- Goals against / match
- 2.17
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 12
- They have won 9 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 24 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 24 matches.
- They have converted 8 of 8 penalties (100%).
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Mariehamn at home only, Ilves away only.
Mariehamn vs Ilves head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Mariehamn 1 · draws 1 · Ilves 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-09 | Ilves | 2-0 | Mariehamn | Veikkausliiga |
| 2026-04-18 | Mariehamn | 2-2 | Ilves | Veikkausliiga |
| 2025-08-31 | Ilves | 2-1 | Mariehamn | Veikkausliiga |
| 2025-04-27 | Mariehamn | 3-2 | Ilves | Veikkausliiga |
Other Relegation Group - 26 fixtures
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- Turku PS vs FF Jaro — team news & stats 2026-10-10