Turku PS vs FF Jaro Prediction & Betting Tips 10/10/2026

Turku PS vs FF Jaro: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Turku PS	Draw	FF Jaro
Model	50%	31%	19%
Market	45%	27%	28%
Published	46%	28%	25%
Edge	+5%	+4%	-9%

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.31 vs 0.70.
Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
The market prices Turku PS below the model: +4.8 percentage points of edge.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.10, recorded 2026-10-06 — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.

Turku PS vs FF Jaro odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Turku PS, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-01.

Opened 2.05Now 2.05 +0.00

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Turku PS	2.05	2.05	+0.00
Draw	3.40	3.40	+0.00
FF Jaro	3.34	3.34	+0.00

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Turku PS and FF Jaro expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.31Turku PS

0.70FF Jaro

Total expected goals: 2.01
Attack rating (Turku PS / FF Jaro): 0.72 / 0.59
Defence rating (Turku PS / FF Jaro): 0.85 / 1.17

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Turku PS vs FF Jaro score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 14.7% 8.2% 3.3% 0.8% 0.2% 1 16.3% 13.5% 4.3% 1.0% 0.2% 2 11.5% 8.0% 2.8% 0.7% 0.1% 3 5.0% 3.5% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 4+ 2.2% 1.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%

Rows: Turku PS goals. Columns: FF Jaro goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Turku PS vs FF Jaro goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 85%

Over 1.5 61%

Over 2.5 33%

Over 3.5 14%

Both teams to score: 38%
No goals (0–0): 15%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Turku PS vs FF Jaro

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Turku PS	46%	2.16
	Draw	28%	3.54
	FF Jaro	25%	3.93
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	33%	3.07
	Under 2.5	67%	1.48
Both teams to score	Yes	38%	2.63
	No	62%	1.61
Double chance	1X (Turku PS or draw)	75%	1.34
	12 (either side)	72%	1.39
	X2 (draw or FF Jaro)	54%	1.86
Handicap -1	Turku PS win by 2+	24%	4.12
	Push (exactly one goal)	26%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit

All betting sites

#	Welcome offer	Why it is here	Visit
1	50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply.	M-PESA Paybill 290059 Daily Jackpot Live betting	Get offer
2	First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply.	1,000+ events every day Live betting around the clock 30+ markets on live events	Get offer
3	100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply.	M-Pesa and Airtel Money deposits Live in-play betting Android and iOS app	Get offer
4	200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply.	1,000+ events every day 30+ markets on live events 24/7 customer support	Get offer

18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.

Turku PS and FF Jaro recent form

Turku PS 1W 3D 2L

FF Jaro 0W 2D 4L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Turku PS at home

Record (W-D-L): 7-3-3
Win rate: 54%
Goals for / match: 1.38
Goals against / match: 0.92
Clean sheets: 7 of 13

They have won 8 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
They have kept 8 clean sheets in 24 matches.
They have failed to score in 7 of 24 matches.

FF Jaro away

Record (W-D-L): 0-3-10
Win rate: 0%
Goals for / match: 0.38
Goals against / match: 2.38
Clean sheets: 1 of 13

They have won 3 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
They average 1.2 goals per game at home against 0.3 on the road.
They have kept 3 clean sheets in 24 matches.
They have failed to score in 12 of 24 matches.
They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).

League matches this season before kick-off: Turku PS at home only, FF Jaro away only.

Turku PS vs FF Jaro head-to-head

Last 2 meetings: Turku PS 1 · draws 1 · FF Jaro 0.

50% 50% 0%

Turku PSDrawsFF Jaro

Previous meetings
Date	Home	Score	Away	Competition
2026-06-27	Turku PS	3-2	FF Jaro	Veikkausliiga
2026-05-02	FF Jaro	2-2	Turku PS	Veikkausliiga

Other Relegation Group - 26 fixtures

SJK v Lahti — match page 2026-10-09
Mariehamn vs Ilves 2026-10-10

Prediction snapshot Turku PS to win Predicted score 1 – 0 C Bet on Turku PS