SJK vs Lahti preview
In the Veikkausliiga fixture between SJK and Lahti, the model shows a close contest with Lahti slightly favored at 36% to win compared to SJK's 35%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, occurring 14% of the time. Both teams to score has a 38% chance, while Over 2.5 goals stands at 28%.
SJK's recent form includes one win in their last six matches, while Lahti has won three of their last five. The expected goals show SJK at 0.88 and Lahti at 0.97, indicating a tight match. A draw at 29% could also impact the outcome, making it a challenging prediction.
SJK vs Lahti: model vs market
| Source | SJK | Draw | Lahti |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 30% | 35% | 35% |
| Market | 37% | 27% | 37% |
| Published | 35% | 29% | 36% |
| Edge | -6% | +8% | -2% |
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.61, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
SJK vs Lahti odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Lahti, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-01.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| SJK | 2.53 | 2.51 | -0.02 |
| Draw | 3.49 | 3.47 | -0.02 |
| Lahti | 2.51 | 2.50 | -0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
SJK and Lahti expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.85
- Attack rating (SJK / Lahti)
- 0.79 / 0.84
- Defence rating (SJK / Lahti)
- 0.83 / 0.72
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
SJK vs Lahti score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: SJK goals. Columns: Lahti goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
SJK vs Lahti goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 38%
- No goals (0–0)
- 17%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for SJK vs Lahti
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | SJK | 35% | 2.85 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.49 | |
| Lahti | 36% | 2.76 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 28% | 3.52 |
| Under 2.5 | 72% | 1.40 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 38% | 2.65 |
| No | 62% | 1.61 | |
| Double chance | 1X (SJK or draw) | 64% | 1.57 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.40 | |
| X2 (draw or Lahti) | 65% | 1.54 | |
| Handicap -1 | Lahti win by 2+ | 13% | 7.44 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
SJK and Lahti recent form
SJK
1W 3D 2L
Lahti
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
SJK at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-3-5
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 12
- They have won 5 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 25 matches.
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Lahti away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-2-6
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 0.83
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 12
- They have won 10 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 25 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 1 of 4 penalties (25%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: SJK at home only, Lahti away only.
SJK vs Lahti head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: SJK 4 · draws 3 · Lahti 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21 | SJK | 1-2 | Lahti | Veikkausliiga |
| 2026-06-13 | Lahti | 2-3 | SJK | Veikkausliiga |
| 2024-07-27 | SJK | 5-5 | Lahti | Veikkausliiga |
| 2024-05-27 | Lahti | 0-4 | SJK | Veikkausliiga |
| 2023-07-16 | Lahti | 1-1 | SJK | Veikkausliiga |
| 2023-04-22 | SJK | 0-0 | Lahti | Veikkausliiga |
| 2022-07-24 | Lahti | 1-3 | SJK | Veikkausliiga |
| 2022-05-07 | SJK | 1-2 | Lahti | Veikkausliiga |
| 2021-09-26 | SJK | 4-1 | Lahti | Veikkausliiga |
| 2021-07-04 | Lahti | 2-1 | SJK | Veikkausliiga |
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