Updated

Veikkausliiga · Relegation

PK-35 vs FF Jaro

· Mustapekka Areena, Helsinki

Full time1 – 1

Alin prediction was PK-35 to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 1 – 0

13% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
PK-35DrawFF Jaro

PK-35 vs FF Jaro: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourcePK-35DrawFF Jaro
Model50%29%21%
Market31%31%38%
Published36%31%34%
Edge+19%-2%-17%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.47 vs 0.86.
  • The market prices PK-35 below the model: +19.3 percentage points of edge.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

PK-35 vs FF Jaro odds movement

Median bookmaker price on PK-35, 3 snapshots since 2026-10-20.

Opened 2.70Now 3.00 +0.30
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
PK-352.703.00+0.30
Draw3.003.00+0.00
FF Jaro2.662.46-0.20

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

PK-35 and FF Jaro expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.47PK-35
0.86FF Jaro
Total expected goals
2.33
Attack rating (PK-35 / FF Jaro)
1.00 / 0.63
Defence rating (PK-35 / FF Jaro)
1.00 / 0.94

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

PK-35 vs FF Jaro score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 11.0% 7.1% 3.6% 1.0% 0.3% 1 13.1% 13.5% 5.3% 1.5% 0.4% 2 10.6% 9.0% 3.9% 1.1% 0.3% 3 5.2% 4.4% 1.9% 0.5% 0.1% 4+ 2.6% 2.3% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1%

Rows: PK-35 goals. Columns: FF Jaro goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

PK-35 vs FF Jaro goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 89%
Over 1.5 69%
Over 2.5 41%
Over 3.5 21%
Both teams to score
46%
No goals (0–0)
11%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for PK-35 vs FF Jaro

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2PK-3536%2.79
Draw31%3.28
FF Jaro34%2.98
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.541%2.43
Under 2.559%1.70
Both teams to scoreYes46%2.20
No54%1.84
Double chance1X (PK-35 or draw)66%1.51
12 (either side)69%1.44
X2 (draw or FF Jaro)64%1.56
Handicap -1PK-35 win by 2+26%3.83
Push (exactly one goal)24%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

PK-35 and FF Jaro recent form

FF Jaro 1W 3D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

FF Jaro away

Record (W-D-L)
1-3-10
Win rate
7%
Goals for / match
0.43
Goals against / match
2.21
Clean sheets
2 of 14
  • They have won 4 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
  • They average 1.2 goals per game at home against 0.4 on the road.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 27 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 12 of 27 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).

League matches this season before kick-off: PK-35 at home only, FF Jaro away only.

Expected lineups

PK-35 lineup · 4-4-2

  1. 1 A. Ramula
  2. 21 K. Rasanen
  3. 2 R. Sipi
  4. 34 T. Andberg
  5. 3 A. Forsström
  6. 23 S. Uchiyama
  7. 18 E. Pitkala
  8. 8 Joao Costa
  9. 88 J. Pikkuhookana
  10. 9 I. Sadik

Bench: A. Abdi, Pedro Diniz, O. Salmensuu, E. Kawakita, J. Tapani, M. Tolonen, L. Lokake, N. Ndaziramiye

FF Jaro lineup · 3-5-2

  1. 1 S. Vits
  2. 6 J. Brunell
  3. 4 M. Ogungbaro
  4. 25 G. Kocsis
  5. 19 F. Østigård Ness
  6. 22 K. Hardén
  7. 66 J. Skau
  8. 5 A. Bjonbäck
  9. 21 J. Myrevik
  10. 91 V. Vuorinen

Bench: Oliver Kass Kawo, L. Zetterström, Joas Snellman, A. Vidjeskog, T. Soderstrom, V. Lofs, M. Pedersen, J. Vikstrom, J. Remesaho

PK-35 vs FF Jaro head-to-head

Last 8 meetings: PK-35 2 · draws 2 · FF Jaro 4.

PK-35DrawsFF Jaro
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2024-09-28PK-350-1FF JaroYkkösliiga
2024-07-17PK-352-1FF JaroYkkösliiga
2024-05-19FF Jaro2-1PK-35Ykkösliiga
2022-07-16PK-350-4FF JaroYkkönen
2022-05-15FF Jaro4-0PK-35Ykkönen
2022-03-13PK-350-0FF JaroYkköscup
2021-08-28PK-352-1FF JaroYkkönen
2021-06-20FF Jaro1-1PK-35Ykkönen

Before and after this match