FF Jaro vs Mariehamn: model vs market
| Source | FF Jaro | Draw | Mariehamn |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 29% | 32% | 39% |
| Market | 42% | 28% | 30% |
| Published | 39% | 29% | 33% |
| Edge | -13% | +4% | +9% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
FF Jaro vs Mariehamn odds movement
Median bookmaker price on FF Jaro, 13 snapshots since 2026-10-11.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| FF Jaro | 2.24 | 2.22 | -0.02 |
| Draw | 3.32 | 3.37 | +0.05 |
| Mariehamn | 3.08 | 3.05 | -0.03 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
FF Jaro and Mariehamn expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.17
- Attack rating (FF Jaro / Mariehamn)
- 0.60 / 0.84
- Defence rating (FF Jaro / Mariehamn)
- 1.02 / 1.06
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
FF Jaro vs Mariehamn score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: FF Jaro goals. Columns: Mariehamn goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
FF Jaro vs Mariehamn goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 45%
- No goals (0–0)
- 13%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for FF Jaro vs Mariehamn
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FF Jaro | 39% | 2.58 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.49 | |
| Mariehamn | 33% | 3.07 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 37% | 2.71 |
| Under 2.5 | 63% | 1.59 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 45% | 2.23 |
| No | 55% | 1.81 | |
| Double chance | 1X (FF Jaro or draw) | 67% | 1.48 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.40 | |
| X2 (draw or Mariehamn) | 61% | 1.63 | |
| Handicap -1 | FF Jaro win by 2+ | 11% | 8.92 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
FF Jaro and Mariehamn recent form
FF Jaro
1W 2D 3L
Mariehamn
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
FF Jaro at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-5-4
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.42
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 12
- They have won 4 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game at home against 0.4 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 12 of 26 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
Mariehamn away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-11
- Win rate
- 8%
- Goals for / match
- 0.77
- Goals against / match
- 2.31
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 13
- They have won 4 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 12 of 26 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: FF Jaro at home only, Mariehamn away only.
Expected lineups
FF Jaro lineup · 4-2-3-1
- 1 S. Vits
- 19 F. Østigård Ness
- 4 M. Ogungbaro
- 6 J. Brunell
- 21 J. Myrevik
- 25 G. Kocsis
- 7 J. Skau
- 5 A. Bjonbäck
- 22 K. Hardén
- 91 V. Vuorinen
Bench: Oliver Kass Kawo, L. Zetterström, Joas Snellman, A. Vidjeskog, T. Soderstrom, V. Lofs, J. Vikstrom, J. Remesaho, A. Sabriye
Mariehamn lineup · 4-4-2
- 1 K. Lund
- 31 Samson Ngulube
- 5 T. Koivisto
- 2 N. Nurmi
- 27 L. Richtnér
- 14 Arvid Bergvik
- 20 E. Patut
- 11 J. Svedberg
- 23 V. Widlund
- 7 A. Larsson
- 19 T. Jakobsen
Bench: A. Soiniemi, J. van der Heyden, W. Nuñez, S. Dahlström, O. Heino, A. Huttunen, L. Andersson, M. Hyvönen
FF Jaro vs Mariehamn head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: FF Jaro 3 · draws 3 · Mariehamn 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | Mariehamn | 2-0 | FF Jaro | Veikkausliiga |
| 2026-05-23 | FF Jaro | 3-0 | Mariehamn | Veikkausliiga |
| 2025-09-28 | FF Jaro | 2-3 | Mariehamn | Veikkausliiga |
| 2025-07-06 | FF Jaro | 1-1 | Mariehamn | Veikkausliiga |
| 2025-04-05 | Mariehamn | 0-2 | FF Jaro | Veikkausliiga |
| 2015-09-17 | FF Jaro | 0-0 | Mariehamn | Veikkausliiga |
| 2015-07-19 | Mariehamn | 4-3 | FF Jaro | Veikkausliiga |
| 2015-04-12 | FF Jaro | 1-1 | Mariehamn | Veikkausliiga |
| 2014-10-18 | FF Jaro | 1-0 | Mariehamn | Veikkausliiga |
| 2014-06-15 | Mariehamn | 4-2 | FF Jaro | Veikkausliiga |
Other Relegation Group - 27 fixtures
- Ilves v SJK — match page 2026-10-17
- Lahti vs Turku PS — team news & stats 2026-10-17
Before and after this match
- FF Jaro, previous: Turku PS v FF Jaro analysis
- Mariehamn, previous: Mariehamn vs Ilves: odds and pick