Lahti vs Turku PS: model vs market
| Source | Lahti | Draw | Turku PS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 42% | 36% | 22% |
| Market | 55% | 24% | 21% |
| Published | 52% | 27% | 21% |
| Edge | -14% | +12% | +1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.01 vs 0.66.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Lahti vs Turku PS odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Lahti, 13 snapshots since 2026-10-11.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lahti | 1.73 | 1.68 | -0.05 |
| Draw | 3.84 | 3.88 | +0.04 |
| Turku PS | 4.25 | 4.48 | +0.23 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Lahti and Turku PS expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.67
- Attack rating (Lahti / Turku PS)
- 0.78 / 0.66
- Defence rating (Lahti / Turku PS)
- 0.73 / 0.83
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Lahti vs Turku PS score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Lahti goals. Columns: Turku PS goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Lahti vs Turku PS goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 32%
- No goals (0–0)
- 20%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Lahti vs Turku PS
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lahti | 52% | 1.93 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.70 | |
| Turku PS | 21% | 4.74 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 23% | 4.28 |
| Under 2.5 | 77% | 1.31 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 32% | 3.14 |
| No | 68% | 1.47 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Lahti or draw) | 79% | 1.27 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.37 | |
| X2 (draw or Turku PS) | 48% | 2.08 | |
| Handicap -1 | Lahti win by 2+ | 17% | 5.94 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Lahti and Turku PS recent form
Lahti
3W 1D 2L
Turku PS
0W 3D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Lahti at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-4-3
- Win rate
- 46%
- Goals for / match
- 1.54
- Goals against / match
- 0.92
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 13
- They have won 10 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 26 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 1 of 4 penalties (25%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Turku PS away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-5-6
- Win rate
- 8%
- Goals for / match
- 0.83
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 12
- They have won 8 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 26 matches.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Lahti at home only, Turku PS away only.
Expected lineups
Lahti lineup · 4-3-3
- 12 A. Hakala
- 25 T. Inkinen
- 4 J. Muller
- 5 Nícolas
- 7 D. Heikkinen
- 14 E. Andersson
- 18 Y. Cassubie
- 8 Tòfol Montiel
- 11 Martim Ferreira
- 17 A. Belabid
- 20 J. Ojanen
Bench: J. Lehtonen, R. Sans, V. Vehkonen, A. Lindholm, O. Koskinen, Veikka Ratto, Neemias Barbosa, A. Kabashi
Turku PS lineup · 4-2-3-1
- 35 D. Lauri
- 25 Abdoulie Tamba
- 15 C. Azongnitode
- 14 M. Hrádecký
- 2 O. Häggström
- 28 T. Vakiparta
- 26 L. Ikonen
- 20 M. Kauppila
- 29 A. Muzaci
- 10 M. Könkkölä
- 44 N. Veinbergs
Bench: E. Henriksson, E. Turkki, L. Ivanovic, A. Sihvonen, N. Talo, S. Anini, T. Karkulowski, K. Visser
Lahti vs Turku PS head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Lahti 2 · draws 5 · Turku PS 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-23 | Lahti | 0-0 | Turku PS | Veikkausliiga |
| 2026-04-10 | Turku PS | 2-1 | Lahti | Veikkausliiga |
| 2026-01-31 | Lahti | 5-1 | Turku PS | League Cup |
| 2025-10-18 | Turku PS | 3-3 | Lahti | Ykkösliiga |
| 2025-07-14 | Lahti | 2-2 | Turku PS | Ykkösliiga |
| 2025-05-21 | Turku PS | 2-2 | Lahti | Ykkösliiga |
| 2025-03-29 | Turku PS | 3-2 | Lahti | Ykköscup |
| 2020-09-17 | Lahti | 1-1 | Turku PS | Veikkausliiga |
| 2020-07-25 | Turku PS | 1-3 | Lahti | Veikkausliiga |
| 2018-09-30 | Lahti | 2-5 | Turku PS | Veikkausliiga |
Other Relegation Group - 27 fixtures
- Ilves v SJK — match page 2026-10-17
- FF Jaro vs Mariehamn 2026-10-17
Before and after this match
- Lahti, previous: SJK – Lahti, 2026-10-09
- Turku PS, previous: Turku PS v FF Jaro analysis