Updated

Veikkausliiga · Relegation Group - 27

Ilves vs SJK

· Tammelan Stadion, Tampere· Referee Ropponen, Akseli

Full time2 – 0

Alin prediction was Ilves to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 0

16% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
IlvesDrawSJK

Ilves vs SJK: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceIlvesDrawSJK
Model44%33%23%
Market49%25%26%
Published48%27%25%
Edge-5%+8%-3%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.18 vs 0.77.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Ilves vs SJK odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Ilves, 13 snapshots since 2026-10-11.

Opened 2.04Now 1.88 -0.17
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Ilves2.041.88-0.17
Draw3.603.71+0.11
SJK3.293.58+0.29

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Ilves and SJK expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.18Ilves
0.77SJK
Total expected goals
1.95
Attack rating (Ilves / SJK)
1.02 / 0.79
Defence rating (Ilves / SJK)
0.70 / 0.75

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Ilves vs SJK score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 15.5% 9.6% 4.2% 1.1% 0.2% 1 15.5% 14.2% 4.9% 1.3% 0.3% 2 10.0% 7.6% 2.9% 0.7% 0.2% 3 3.9% 3.0% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 4+ 1.5% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%

Rows: Ilves goals. Columns: SJK goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Ilves vs SJK goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 84%
Over 1.5 59%
Over 2.5 31%
Over 3.5 13%
Both teams to score
38%
No goals (0–0)
16%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Ilves vs SJK

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Ilves48%2.08
Draw27%3.72
SJK25%4.00
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.531%3.22
Under 2.569%1.45
Both teams to scoreYes38%2.60
No62%1.63
Double chance1X (Ilves or draw)75%1.33
12 (either side)73%1.37
X2 (draw or SJK)52%1.93
Handicap -1Ilves win by 2+20%4.99
Push (exactly one goal)24%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Ilves and SJK recent form

Ilves 3W 1D 2L
SJK 2W 3D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Ilves at home

Record (W-D-L)
8-1-4
Win rate
62%
Goals for / match
1.69
Goals against / match
0.92
Clean sheets
7 of 13
  • They have won 10 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
  • They have kept 8 clean sheets in 26 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 26 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 9 of 9 penalties (100%).
  • 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

SJK away

Record (W-D-L)
1-6-6
Win rate
8%
Goals for / match
0.77
Goals against / match
1.46
Clean sheets
3 of 13
  • They have won 6 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
  • They have kept 6 clean sheets in 26 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 9 of 26 matches.
  • 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Ilves at home only, SJK away only.

Expected lineups

Ilves lineup

  1. 14 A. Popovitch
  2. 12 F. Krkalić
  3. 19 Goudouss Bamba
  4. 13 K. Wallius
  5. 3 M. Rale
  6. 22 O. Multala
  7. 17 S. Baranov
  8. 9 T. Hytönen
  9. 16 T. Miettunen
  10. 24 V. Kumpu
  11. 33 Y. Sacko

Bench: Y. Raap, M. Stjopin, H. Coulibaly, S. Suvanne, F. Kouakou, J. Kilo, R. Leislahti, E. Tamminen, Aapeli Rasanen

SJK lineup

  1. 8 A. Boström
  2. 48 A. Traore
  3. 27 A. Vellios
  4. 19 E. Mastokangas
  5. 2 Facundo Costantini
  6. 28 K. Nwanege
  7. 7 Kelwin
  8. 22 L. Vesterbacka
  9. 5 O. Väistö
  10. 60 S. F. James
  11. 6 S. Yussif

Bench: R. Paunio, J. Streng, Murilo, E. Mömmö, J. Viitala, T. Tollinen, S. Bagayogo, A. Cisse, T. Kangaskokko

Ilves vs SJK head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Ilves 2 · draws 6 · SJK 2.

IlvesDrawsSJK
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-06-27Ilves2-2SJKVeikkausliiga
2026-05-02SJK1-1IlvesVeikkausliiga
2026-02-18Ilves3-1SJKLeague Cup
2025-11-03Ilves3-3SJKVeikkausliiga
2025-10-04SJK2-1IlvesVeikkausliiga
2025-07-05SJK1-1IlvesVeikkausliiga
2025-06-18Ilves2-3SJKVeikkausliiga
2025-01-25Ilves1-1SJKLeague Cup
2024-10-19Ilves4-0SJKVeikkausliiga
2024-06-19Ilves2-2SJKVeikkausliiga

Other Relegation Group - 27 fixtures

Before and after this match