Fortuna Köln vs Stuttgart II preview
In the 3. Liga fixture between Fortuna Köln and Stuttgart II, the model gives Fortuna Köln a 49% chance to win, with a most likely scoreline of 2-1 at 9%. Both teams to score and Over 2.5 goals are each projected at 70%, indicating a strong likelihood of an entertaining match.
Fortuna Köln's expected goals stand at 2.07, while Stuttgart II's is 1.54, suggesting a competitive encounter. However, the recent form shows Fortuna Köln with a mixed record of W-L-D-D-W-D, and Stuttgart II struggling with D-L-L-W-L-L. If Stuttgart II can improve their form, they could challenge the predictions.
Fortuna Köln vs Stuttgart II: model vs market
| Source | Fortuna Köln | Draw | Stuttgart II |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 49% | 23% | 28% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 49% | 23% | 28% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.07 vs 1.54.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Fortuna Köln and Stuttgart II expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.62
- Attack rating (Fortuna Köln / Stuttgart II)
- 0.87 / 1.24
- Defence rating (Fortuna Köln / Stuttgart II)
- 0.85 / 1.36
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Fortuna Köln vs Stuttgart II score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Fortuna Köln goals. Columns: Stuttgart II goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Fortuna Köln vs Stuttgart II goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 70%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Fortuna Köln vs Stuttgart II
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Fortuna Köln | 49% | 2.04 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.37 | |
| Stuttgart II | 28% | 3.57 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 70% | 1.43 |
| Under 2.5 | 30% | 3.34 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 70% | 1.44 |
| No | 30% | 3.29 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Fortuna Köln or draw) | 72% | 1.39 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.30 | |
| X2 (draw or Stuttgart II) | 51% | 1.97 | |
| Handicap -1 | Fortuna Köln win by 2+ | 29% | 3.42 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Fortuna Köln and Stuttgart II recent form
Fortuna Köln
2W 3D 1L
Stuttgart II
1W 1D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Fortuna Köln at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game on the road against 0.3 at home.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
Stuttgart II away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-2
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.75
- Goals against / match
- 1.75
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
League matches this season before kick-off: Fortuna Köln at home only, Stuttgart II away only.
Before and after this match
- Fortuna Köln, previous: Rot-Weiß Essen – Fortuna Köln, 2026-10-13
- Stuttgart II, previous: Stuttgart II v Hoffenheim II analysis