Updated

3. Liga · Matchday 9

Stuttgart II vs Hoffenheim II

· comtech Arena, Aspache· Referee Max Kluge

Full time3 – 2

Alin prediction was Hoffenheim II to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 1 – 2

7% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Stuttgart IIDrawHoffenheim II

Stuttgart II vs Hoffenheim II: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceStuttgart IIDrawHoffenheim II
Model39%22%38%
Market32%24%44%
Published34%23%43%
Edge+2%0%-1%
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Stuttgart II vs Hoffenheim II odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Hoffenheim II, 10 snapshots since 2026-10-09.

Opened 2.60Now 2.05 -0.55
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Stuttgart II2.182.84+0.66
Draw3.803.85+0.05
Hoffenheim II2.602.05-0.55

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Stuttgart II and Hoffenheim II expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.99Stuttgart II
1.97Hoffenheim II
Total expected goals
3.95
Attack rating (Stuttgart II / Hoffenheim II)
1.16 / 1.02
Defence rating (Stuttgart II / Hoffenheim II)
1.29 / 0.98

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Stuttgart II vs Hoffenheim II score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 2.7% 3.0% 3.7% 2.4% 1.9% 1 3.1% 8.2% 7.4% 4.8% 3.7% 2 3.8% 7.4% 7.3% 4.8% 3.7% 3 2.5% 4.9% 4.8% 3.2% 2.5% 4+ 2.0% 3.9% 3.8% 2.5% 1.9%

Rows: Stuttgart II goals. Columns: Hoffenheim II goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Stuttgart II vs Hoffenheim II goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 97%
Over 1.5 91%
Over 2.5 76%
Over 3.5 56%
Both teams to score
75%
No goals (0–0)
3%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Stuttgart II vs Hoffenheim II

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Stuttgart II34%2.96
Draw23%4.29
Hoffenheim II43%2.33
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.576%1.32
Under 2.524%4.08
Both teams to scoreYes75%1.33
No25%3.99
Double chance1X (Stuttgart II or draw)57%1.75
12 (either side)77%1.30
X2 (draw or Hoffenheim II)66%1.51
Handicap -1Hoffenheim II win by 2+21%4.68
Push (exactly one goal)17%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Stuttgart II and Hoffenheim II recent form

Stuttgart II 1W 2D 3L
Hoffenheim II 3W 1D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Stuttgart II at home

Record (W-D-L)
0-1-2
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
1.67
Goals against / match
2.67
Clean sheets
0 of 3
  • They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.

Hoffenheim II away

Record (W-D-L)
2-0-2
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
1.50
Goals against / match
1.25
Clean sheets
1 of 4
  • They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
  • They average 2.5 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.

League matches this season before kick-off: Stuttgart II at home only, Hoffenheim II away only.

Stuttgart II vs Hoffenheim II head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Stuttgart II 5 · draws 3 · Hoffenheim II 2.

Stuttgart IIDrawsHoffenheim II
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-03-15Stuttgart II1-0Hoffenheim II3. Liga
2025-10-05Hoffenheim II1-3Stuttgart II3. Liga
2024-05-18Stuttgart II2-0Hoffenheim IIRegionalliga - SudWest
2023-11-12Hoffenheim II1-1Stuttgart IIRegionalliga - SudWest
2023-03-03Hoffenheim II2-2Stuttgart IIRegionalliga - SudWest
2022-08-27Stuttgart II3-3Hoffenheim IIRegionalliga - SudWest
2021-12-03Hoffenheim II2-0Stuttgart IIRegionalliga - SudWest
2021-08-21Stuttgart II1-3Hoffenheim IIRegionalliga - SudWest
2021-04-20Stuttgart II2-1Hoffenheim IIRegionalliga - SudWest
2020-10-30Hoffenheim II0-3Stuttgart IIRegionalliga - SudWest

Other Matchday 9 fixtures

Before and after this match