Updated

3. Liga · Matchday 9

Havelse vs Würzburger Kickers

· Eilenriedestadion, Hannover· Referee Luca Sambill

Full time2 – 2

Alin prediction was Würzburger Kickers to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 1 – 2

8% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
HavelseDrawWürzburger Kickers

Havelse vs Würzburger Kickers: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceHavelseDrawWürzburger Kickers
Model39%23%38%
Market34%25%41%
Published35%25%40%
Edge+1%-1%-1%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Havelse vs Würzburger Kickers odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Würzburger Kickers, 10 snapshots since 2026-10-09.

Opened 2.22Now 2.21 -0.01
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Havelse2.682.66-0.02
Draw3.603.54-0.06
Würzburger Kickers2.222.21-0.01

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Havelse and Würzburger Kickers expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.86Havelse
1.83Würzburger Kickers
Total expected goals
3.69
Attack rating (Havelse / Würzburger Kickers)
0.88 / 0.82
Defence rating (Havelse / Würzburger Kickers)
1.50 / 1.21

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Havelse vs Würzburger Kickers score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 3.3% 3.7% 4.2% 2.5% 1.8% 1 3.8% 9.3% 7.8% 4.7% 3.3% 2 4.3% 7.9% 7.2% 4.4% 3.1% 3 2.7% 4.9% 4.5% 2.7% 1.9% 4+ 1.9% 3.5% 3.2% 1.9% 1.3%

Rows: Havelse goals. Columns: Würzburger Kickers goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Havelse vs Würzburger Kickers goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 97%
Over 1.5 89%
Over 2.5 71%
Over 3.5 50%
Both teams to score
72%
No goals (0–0)
3%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Havelse vs Würzburger Kickers

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Havelse35%2.84
Draw25%4.01
Würzburger Kickers40%2.51
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.571%1.40
Under 2.529%3.48
Both teams to scoreYes72%1.39
No28%3.54
Double chance1X (Havelse or draw)60%1.66
12 (either side)75%1.33
X2 (draw or Würzburger Kickers)65%1.54
Handicap -1Würzburger Kickers win by 2+20%4.93
Push (exactly one goal)17%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Havelse and Würzburger Kickers recent form

Havelse 1W 1D 4L
Würzburger Kickers 1W 0D 5L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Havelse at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-1-2
Win rate
25%
Goals for / match
2.00
Goals against / match
2.50
Clean sheets
0 of 4
  • They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
  • 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Würzburger Kickers away

Record (W-D-L)
0-1-3
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
1.25
Goals against / match
3.25
Clean sheets
0 of 4
  • They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
  • 47% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Havelse at home only, Würzburger Kickers away only.

Expected lineups

Havelse lineup · 5-3-2

  1. 1 T. Opitz
  2. 10 K. Schumacher
  3. 24 Y. Mausehund
  4. 14 Y. Wardak
  5. 15 D. Duah
  6. 22 L. Sommer
  7. 33 J. Tugbenyo
  8. 8 J. Berger
  9. 28 R. Velasco
  10. 11 K. Okyere Wriedt
  11. 12 Eryk Artur Grzywacz

Würzburger Kickers lineup · 4-4-2

  1. 33 M. Rajkovačić
  2. 4 N. De Medina
  3. 16 L. Breunig
  4. 28 E. Farahnak
  5. 21 L. Hemmerich
  6. 37 I. Franjić
  7. 8 D. Kinsombi
  8. 27 Xaver Kiefersauer
  9. 18 F. Evina
  10. 30 T. Bonga
  11. 19 T. Kastanaras

Bench: L. Eberle, Namrud Embaye, E. Muteba, Jermain Nischalke, P. Ochs, L. Omore, T. Kraus, Burak Karakaya

Havelse vs Würzburger Kickers head-to-head

Last 2 meetings: Havelse 0 · draws 1 · Würzburger Kickers 1.

HavelseDrawsWürzburger Kickers
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2022-02-20Havelse1-3Würzburger Kickers3. Liga
2021-09-11Würzburger Kickers0-0Havelse3. Liga

Other Matchday 9 fixtures

Before and after this match