Updated

3. Liga · Matchday 9

Rot-Weiß Essen vs Fortuna Köln

· Stadion Essen, Essen· Referee Niclas Rose

Full time2 – 0

Alin prediction was Rot-Weiß Essen to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 0

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Rot-Weiß EssenDrawFortuna Köln

Rot-Weiß Essen vs Fortuna Köln: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceRot-Weiß EssenDrawFortuna Köln
Model45%28%26%
Market63%21%17%
Published58%23%19%
Edge-4%+2%+2%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.49 vs 1.08.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Rot-Weiß Essen vs Fortuna Köln odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Rot-Weiß Essen, 10 snapshots since 2026-10-09.

Opened 1.45Now 1.44 -0.01
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Rot-Weiß Essen1.451.44-0.01
Draw4.334.33+0.00
Fortuna Köln5.405.45+0.05

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Rot-Weiß Essen and Fortuna Köln expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.49Rot-Weiß Essen
1.08Fortuna Köln
Total expected goals
2.57
Attack rating (Rot-Weiß Essen / Fortuna Köln)
1.12 / 0.78
Defence rating (Rot-Weiß Essen / Fortuna Köln)
0.93 / 0.76

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Rot-Weiß Essen vs Fortuna Köln score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 8.9% 7.0% 4.5% 1.6% 0.5% 1 10.2% 13.6% 6.6% 2.4% 0.8% 2 8.5% 9.2% 4.9% 1.8% 0.6% 3 4.2% 4.6% 2.5% 0.9% 0.3% 4+ 2.2% 2.4% 1.3% 0.5% 0.2%

Rows: Rot-Weiß Essen goals. Columns: Fortuna Köln goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Rot-Weiß Essen vs Fortuna Köln goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 91%
Over 1.5 74%
Over 2.5 47%
Over 3.5 26%
Both teams to score
52%
No goals (0–0)
9%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Rot-Weiß Essen vs Fortuna Köln

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Rot-Weiß Essen58%1.72
Draw23%4.40
Fortuna Köln19%5.27
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.547%2.11
Under 2.553%1.90
Both teams to scoreYes52%1.91
No48%2.10
Double chance1X (Rot-Weiß Essen or draw)81%1.23
12 (either side)77%1.29
X2 (draw or Fortuna Köln)42%2.40
Handicap -1Rot-Weiß Essen win by 2+23%4.31
Push (exactly one goal)22%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Rot-Weiß Essen and Fortuna Köln recent form

Rot-Weiß Essen 3W 3D 0L
Fortuna Köln 2W 3D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Rot-Weiß Essen at home

Record (W-D-L)
3-1-0
Win rate
75%
Goals for / match
2.25
Goals against / match
0.75
Clean sheets
2 of 4
  • They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
  • They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.8 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Fortuna Köln away

Record (W-D-L)
2-1-1
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
1.75
Goals against / match
1.25
Clean sheets
0 of 4
  • They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • They average 1.8 goals per game on the road against 0.2 at home.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 8 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Rot-Weiß Essen at home only, Fortuna Köln away only.

Expected lineups

Rot-Weiß Essen lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 J. Golz
  2. 19 F. Bouebari
  3. 23 J. Ríos Alonso
  4. 15 Ben Vincent Hüning
  5. 2 M. Kostka
  6. 11 Noah Pesch
  7. 22 J. Sietan
  8. 18 D. Abiama
  9. 17 S. Telalović
  10. 10 M. Obuz
  11. 20 M. Janssen

Bench: Aiman Dardari, J. Potočnik, L. Brumme, R. Reisig, E. Çelebi, L. Bazzoli, F. Wienand, J. Gnagnon

Rot-Weiß Essen vs Fortuna Köln head-to-head

Last 6 meetings: Rot-Weiß Essen 3 · draws 2 · Fortuna Köln 1.

Rot-Weiß EssenDrawsFortuna Köln
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2025-07-12Rot-Weiß Essen5-0Fortuna KölnFriendlies Clubs
2022-03-16Fortuna Köln3-3Rot-Weiß EssenRegionalliga - West
2021-08-29Rot-Weiß Essen2-1Fortuna KölnRegionalliga - West
2021-03-07Rot-Weiß Essen2-0Fortuna KölnRegionalliga - West
2020-10-10Fortuna Köln1-1Rot-Weiß EssenRegionalliga - West
2019-10-11Rot-Weiß Essen0-1Fortuna KölnRegionalliga - West

Other Matchday 9 fixtures

Before and after this match