Rot-Weiß Essen vs Fortuna Köln: model vs market
| Source | Rot-Weiß Essen | Draw | Fortuna Köln |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 47% | 27% | 26% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 47% | 27% | 26% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.59 vs 1.13.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Rot-Weiß Essen and Fortuna Köln expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.72
- Attack rating (Rot-Weiß Essen / Fortuna Köln)
- 1.07 / 0.87
- Defence rating (Rot-Weiß Essen / Fortuna Köln)
- 0.88 / 0.85
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Rot-Weiß Essen vs Fortuna Köln score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Rot-Weiß Essen goals. Columns: Fortuna Köln goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Rot-Weiß Essen vs Fortuna Köln goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 55%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Rot-Weiß Essen vs Fortuna Köln
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Rot-Weiß Essen | 47% | 2.14 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.66 | |
| Fortuna Köln | 26% | 3.85 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51% | 1.95 |
| Under 2.5 | 49% | 2.05 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55% | 1.81 |
| No | 45% | 2.23 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Rot-Weiß Essen or draw) | 74% | 1.35 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.38 | |
| X2 (draw or Fortuna Köln) | 53% | 1.88 | |
| Handicap -1 | Rot-Weiß Essen win by 2+ | 25% | 4.04 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Rot-Weiß Essen and Fortuna Köln recent form
Rot-Weiß Essen
4W 2D 0L
Fortuna Köln
2W 3D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Rot-Weiß Essen at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-0
- Win rate
- 75%
- Goals for / match
- 2.25
- Goals against / match
- 0.75
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Fortuna Köln away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.75
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game on the road against 0.3 at home.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Rot-Weiß Essen at home only, Fortuna Köln away only.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Hansa Rostock v SV Meppen — match page 2026-10-13
- FC Saarbrücken v MSV Duisburg — match page 2026-10-13
- Havelse v Würzburger Kickers — match page 2026-10-13
- Stuttgart II vs Hoffenheim II — team news & stats 2026-10-13