FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Rot-Weiß Essen preview
In the upcoming match between FC Ingolstadt 04 and Rot-Weiß Essen, the 1X2 probabilities show FC Ingolstadt 04 at 31%, a draw at 25%, and Rot-Weiß Essen at 44%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, which has a 9% chance of occurring. The model indicates a high likelihood of Over 2.5 goals at 62% and both teams to score at 64%.
FC Ingolstadt 04's expected goals stand at 1.43, while Rot-Weiß Essen's expected goals are higher at 1.75. Recent form shows FC Ingolstadt 04 with two losses and a draw in their last five matches, whereas Rot-Weiß Essen has been more consistent with three wins and two draws. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions.
FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Rot-Weiß Essen: model vs market
| Source | FC Ingolstadt 04 | Draw | Rot-Weiß Essen |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 25% | 23% | 52% |
| Market | 27% | 25% | 48% |
| Published | 27% | 24% | 49% |
| Edge | -3% | -1% | +4% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.02 vs 1.36.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Rot-Weiß Essen below the model: +3.9 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.00, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update.
FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Rot-Weiß Essen odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Rot-Weiß Essen, 4 snapshots since 2026-10-13.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Ingolstadt 04 | 2.95 | 3.40 | +0.45 |
| Draw | 3.80 | 3.75 | -0.05 |
| Rot-Weiß Essen | 2.05 | 1.93 | -0.12 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
FC Ingolstadt 04 and Rot-Weiß Essen expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.38
- Attack rating (FC Ingolstadt 04 / Rot-Weiß Essen)
- 0.93 / 1.14
- Defence rating (FC Ingolstadt 04 / Rot-Weiß Essen)
- 1.19 / 0.84
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Rot-Weiß Essen score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: FC Ingolstadt 04 goals. Columns: Rot-Weiß Essen goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Rot-Weiß Essen goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 65%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Rot-Weiß Essen
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Ingolstadt 04 | 27% | 3.76 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.10 | |
| Rot-Weiß Essen | 49% | 2.04 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66% | 1.52 |
| Under 2.5 | 34% | 2.91 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65% | 1.53 |
| No | 35% | 2.89 | |
| Double chance | 1X (FC Ingolstadt 04 or draw) | 51% | 1.96 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.32 | |
| X2 (draw or Rot-Weiß Essen) | 73% | 1.36 | |
| Handicap -1 | Rot-Weiß Essen win by 2+ | 31% | 3.22 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
FC Ingolstadt 04 and Rot-Weiß Essen recent form
FC Ingolstadt 04
2W 0D 4L
Rot-Weiß Essen
4W 2D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
FC Ingolstadt 04 at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-3
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 2.75
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
Rot-Weiß Essen away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-1
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.75
- Goals against / match
- 2.25
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 5 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: FC Ingolstadt 04 at home only, Rot-Weiß Essen away only.
FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Rot-Weiß Essen head-to-head
Last 8 meetings: FC Ingolstadt 04 1 · draws 3 · Rot-Weiß Essen 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-11 | Rot-Weiß Essen | 4-1 | FC Ingolstadt 04 | 3. Liga |
| 2025-11-08 | FC Ingolstadt 04 | 1-2 | Rot-Weiß Essen | 3. Liga |
| 2025-02-22 | Rot-Weiß Essen | 2-0 | FC Ingolstadt 04 | 3. Liga |
| 2024-09-21 | FC Ingolstadt 04 | 2-2 | Rot-Weiß Essen | 3. Liga |
| 2024-04-28 | Rot-Weiß Essen | 4-0 | FC Ingolstadt 04 | 3. Liga |
| 2023-11-25 | FC Ingolstadt 04 | 2-1 | Rot-Weiß Essen | 3. Liga |
| 2023-02-25 | FC Ingolstadt 04 | 1-1 | Rot-Weiß Essen | 3. Liga |
| 2022-08-20 | Rot-Weiß Essen | 2-2 | FC Ingolstadt 04 | 3. Liga |
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- Fortuna Köln v Stuttgart II — match page 2026-10-16
- Fortuna Düsseldorf vs FC Saarbrücken 2026-10-17
- SSV Jahn Regensburg v SV Wehen — match page 2026-10-17
- SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach vs Preußen Münster — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Alemannia Aachen vs Hansa Rostock — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Würzburger Kickers v Waldhof Mannheim — match page 2026-10-17
- Hoffenheim II vs Verl 2026-10-18
- MSV Duisburg vs FC Viktoria Köln 2026-10-18
Before and after this match
- FC Ingolstadt 04, previous: Waldhof Mannheim vs FC Ingolstadt 04 prediction
- Rot-Weiß Essen, previous: Rot-Weiß Essen – Fortuna Köln, 2026-10-13
- Rot-Weiß Essen, next: Rot-Weiß Essen vs RasenBallsport Leipzig prediction