Fortuna Düsseldorf vs FC Saarbrücken preview
In the 3. Liga fixture between Fortuna Düsseldorf and FC Saarbrücken, the 1X2 probabilities show Fortuna Düsseldorf at 41%, while FC Saarbrücken stands at 34%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-1, with a 7% chance. Both teams to score has a probability of 59%, and there is a 55% chance of Over 2.5 goals.
Fortuna Düsseldorf's expected goals are 1.25, compared to FC Saarbrücken's 1.64. Recent form indicates Fortuna Düsseldorf has two wins in their last five matches, while FC Saarbrücken has only one win. This could impact the match outcome if FC Saarbrücken's attack performs better than expected. The confidence grade for this match is C, suggesting some uncertainty in the predictions.
Fortuna Düsseldorf vs FC Saarbrücken: model vs market
| Source | Fortuna Düsseldorf | Draw | FC Saarbrücken |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 32% | 26% | 42% |
| Market | 45% | 26% | 29% |
| Published | 42% | 26% | 33% |
| Edge | -13% | 0% | +13% |
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.12, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update.
Fortuna Düsseldorf vs FC Saarbrücken odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Fortuna Düsseldorf, 4 snapshots since 2026-10-13.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fortuna Düsseldorf | 2.02 | 2.00 | -0.02 |
| Draw | 3.60 | 3.55 | -0.05 |
| FC Saarbrücken | 3.05 | 3.10 | +0.05 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Fortuna Düsseldorf and FC Saarbrücken expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.11
- Attack rating (Fortuna Düsseldorf / FC Saarbrücken)
- 0.76 / 1.18
- Defence rating (Fortuna Düsseldorf / FC Saarbrücken)
- 0.95 / 1.08
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Fortuna Düsseldorf vs FC Saarbrücken score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Fortuna Düsseldorf goals. Columns: FC Saarbrücken goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Fortuna Düsseldorf vs FC Saarbrücken goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 63%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Fortuna Düsseldorf vs FC Saarbrücken
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Fortuna Düsseldorf | 42% | 2.39 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.91 | |
| FC Saarbrücken | 33% | 3.08 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60% | 1.67 |
| Under 2.5 | 40% | 2.50 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63% | 1.59 |
| No | 37% | 2.70 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Fortuna Düsseldorf or draw) | 67% | 1.48 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or FC Saarbrücken) | 58% | 1.72 | |
| Handicap -1 | Fortuna Düsseldorf win by 2+ | 15% | 6.64 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Fortuna Düsseldorf and FC Saarbrücken recent form
Fortuna Düsseldorf
3W 2D 1L
FC Saarbrücken
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Fortuna Düsseldorf at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
FC Saarbrücken away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-0
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 2.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 4 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Fortuna Düsseldorf at home only, FC Saarbrücken away only.
Fortuna Düsseldorf vs FC Saarbrücken head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Fortuna Düsseldorf 0 · draws 1 · FC Saarbrücken 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-03-03 | FC Saarbrücken | 2-2 | Fortuna Düsseldorf | DFB Pokal |
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- Fortuna Köln v Stuttgart II — match page 2026-10-16
- SSV Jahn Regensburg v SV Wehen — match page 2026-10-17
- FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Rot-Weiß Essen — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach vs Preußen Münster — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Alemannia Aachen vs Hansa Rostock — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Würzburger Kickers v Waldhof Mannheim — match page 2026-10-17
- Hoffenheim II vs Verl 2026-10-18
- MSV Duisburg vs FC Viktoria Köln 2026-10-18
Before and after this match
- Fortuna Düsseldorf, previous: Preußen Münster – Fortuna Düsseldorf, 2026-10-14
- FC Saarbrücken, previous: FC Saarbrücken v MSV Duisburg analysis