Alemannia Aachen vs Hansa Rostock preview
Alemannia Aachen faces Hansa Rostock with a 63% chance of winning, while Hansa Rostock has an 18% chance. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which occurs in 9% of simulations. Over 2.5 goals is projected at 71%, and both teams to score stands at 66%.
Alemannia Aachen's expected goals are 2.43 compared to Hansa Rostock's 1.25. Recent form shows Alemannia Aachen with 2 wins, 2 losses, and 2 draws, while Hansa Rostock has 4 wins, 1 loss, and 1 draw. The head-to-head record shows 2 draws with no wins for either team. The confidence grade is C, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions.
Alemannia Aachen vs Hansa Rostock: model vs market
| Source | Alemannia Aachen | Draw | Hansa Rostock |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 57% | 21% | 22% |
| Market | 37% | 25% | 38% |
| Published | 42% | 24% | 34% |
| Edge | +20% | -4% | -16% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.41 vs 1.48.
- The market prices Alemannia Aachen below the model: +20.1 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.50, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update.
Alemannia Aachen vs Hansa Rostock odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Alemannia Aachen, 4 snapshots since 2026-10-13.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alemannia Aachen | 2.33 | 2.45 | +0.12 |
| Draw | 3.75 | 3.65 | -0.10 |
| Hansa Rostock | 2.45 | 2.41 | -0.04 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Alemannia Aachen and Hansa Rostock expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.88
- Attack rating (Alemannia Aachen / Hansa Rostock)
- 1.16 / 1.05
- Defence rating (Alemannia Aachen / Hansa Rostock)
- 0.94 / 1.18
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Alemannia Aachen vs Hansa Rostock score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Alemannia Aachen goals. Columns: Hansa Rostock goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Alemannia Aachen vs Hansa Rostock goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 71%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Alemannia Aachen vs Hansa Rostock
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Alemannia Aachen | 42% | 2.37 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.19 | |
| Hansa Rostock | 34% | 2.95 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 74% | 1.34 |
| Under 2.5 | 26% | 3.91 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 71% | 1.41 |
| No | 29% | 3.45 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Alemannia Aachen or draw) | 66% | 1.51 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.31 | |
| X2 (draw or Hansa Rostock) | 58% | 1.73 | |
| Handicap -1 | Alemannia Aachen win by 2+ | 37% | 2.69 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Alemannia Aachen and Hansa Rostock recent form
Alemannia Aachen
2W 1D 3L
Hansa Rostock
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Alemannia Aachen at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-2
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.80
- Goals against / match
- 2.20
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- 48% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Hansa Rostock away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-1
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.80
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 4 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Alemannia Aachen at home only, Hansa Rostock away only.
Alemannia Aachen vs Hansa Rostock head-to-head
Last 8 meetings: Alemannia Aachen 2 · draws 4 · Hansa Rostock 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | Alemannia Aachen | 1-1 | Hansa Rostock | 3. Liga |
| 2025-12-07 | Hansa Rostock | 2-2 | Alemannia Aachen | 3. Liga |
| 2025-03-16 | Alemannia Aachen | 2-1 | Hansa Rostock | 3. Liga |
| 2024-10-19 | Hansa Rostock | 1-2 | Alemannia Aachen | 3. Liga |
| 2013-04-12 | Alemannia Aachen | 3-4 | Hansa Rostock | 3. Liga |
| 2012-10-20 | Hansa Rostock | 1-0 | Alemannia Aachen | 3. Liga |
| 2012-02-19 | Alemannia Aachen | 0-0 | Hansa Rostock | 2. Bundesliga |
| 2011-08-19 | Hansa Rostock | 0-0 | Alemannia Aachen | 2. Bundesliga |
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- Fortuna Köln v Stuttgart II — match page 2026-10-16
- Fortuna Düsseldorf vs FC Saarbrücken 2026-10-17
- SSV Jahn Regensburg v SV Wehen — match page 2026-10-17
- FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Rot-Weiß Essen — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach vs Preußen Münster — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Würzburger Kickers v Waldhof Mannheim — match page 2026-10-17
- Hoffenheim II vs Verl 2026-10-18
- MSV Duisburg vs FC Viktoria Köln 2026-10-18
Before and after this match
- Alemannia Aachen, previous: SV Wehen v Alemannia Aachen analysis
- Hansa Rostock, previous: Hansa Rostock vs SV Meppen: odds and pick