MSV Duisburg vs FC Viktoria Köln preview
In the match between MSV Duisburg and FC Viktoria Köln, the 1X2 probabilities show MSV Duisburg at 42%, FC Viktoria Köln at 35%, and a draw at 23%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with an 8% chance. Both teams to score and Over 2.5 goals both sit at 72%, indicating a strong potential for an exciting match.
MSV Duisburg's expected goals are 1.95, while FC Viktoria Köln's are 1.79. Recent form shows MSV Duisburg with three wins in their last six matches, while FC Viktoria Köln has four wins in the same span. A potential upset could occur if FC Viktoria Köln continues their strong recent performance, despite their historical head-to-head record against Duisburg showing no wins for either side.
MSV Duisburg vs FC Viktoria Köln: model vs market
| Source | MSV Duisburg | Draw | FC Viktoria Köln |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 42% | 22% | 35% |
| Market | 43% | 25% | 32% |
| Published | 43% | 25% | 33% |
| Edge | -1% | -3% | +4% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.15, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update.
MSV Duisburg vs FC Viktoria Köln odds movement
Median bookmaker price on MSV Duisburg, 3 snapshots since 2026-10-13.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| MSV Duisburg | 2.10 | 2.10 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.55 | 3.60 | +0.05 |
| FC Viktoria Köln | 2.90 | 2.88 | -0.02 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
MSV Duisburg and FC Viktoria Köln expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.93
- Attack rating (MSV Duisburg / FC Viktoria Köln)
- 1.42 / 1.40
- Defence rating (MSV Duisburg / FC Viktoria Köln)
- 0.90 / 0.83
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
MSV Duisburg vs FC Viktoria Köln score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: MSV Duisburg goals. Columns: FC Viktoria Köln goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
MSV Duisburg vs FC Viktoria Köln goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 75%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for MSV Duisburg vs FC Viktoria Köln
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | MSV Duisburg | 43% | 2.33 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.08 | |
| FC Viktoria Köln | 33% | 3.08 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 75% | 1.33 |
| Under 2.5 | 25% | 4.03 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 75% | 1.34 |
| No | 25% | 3.94 | |
| Double chance | 1X (MSV Duisburg or draw) | 67% | 1.48 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.32 | |
| X2 (draw or FC Viktoria Köln) | 57% | 1.75 | |
| Handicap -1 | MSV Duisburg win by 2+ | 24% | 4.12 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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MSV Duisburg and FC Viktoria Köln recent form
MSV Duisburg
5W 0D 1L
FC Viktoria Köln
5W 0D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
MSV Duisburg at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 2.75
- Goals against / match
- 0.75
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 7 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.8 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
FC Viktoria Köln away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-1
- Win rate
- 75%
- Goals for / match
- 2.75
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 6 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 3.0 goals per match.
- They average 3.2 goals per game at home against 2.8 on the road.
League matches this season before kick-off: MSV Duisburg at home only, FC Viktoria Köln away only.
MSV Duisburg vs FC Viktoria Köln head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: MSV Duisburg 0 · draws 2 · FC Viktoria Köln 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-16 | MSV Duisburg | 1-1 | FC Viktoria Köln | 3. Liga |
| 2025-12-21 | FC Viktoria Köln | 0-0 | MSV Duisburg | 3. Liga |
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- Fortuna Düsseldorf vs FC Saarbrücken 2026-10-17
- SSV Jahn Regensburg v SV Wehen — match page 2026-10-17
- FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Rot-Weiß Essen — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach vs Preußen Münster — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Alemannia Aachen vs Hansa Rostock — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Würzburger Kickers v Waldhof Mannheim — match page 2026-10-17
- Hoffenheim II vs Verl 2026-10-18
- SV Meppen vs Havelse 2026-10-18
Before and after this match
- MSV Duisburg, previous: FC Saarbrücken v MSV Duisburg analysis
- FC Viktoria Köln, previous: FC Viktoria Köln vs SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach prediction