FC Saarbrücken vs MSV Duisburg Prediction & Betting Tips 13/10/2026

FC Saarbrücken vs MSV Duisburg: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	FC Saarbrücken	Draw	MSV Duisburg
Model	35%	23%	42%
Market	—	—	—
Published	35%	23%	42%
Edge	—	—	—

Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

FC Saarbrücken and MSV Duisburg expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.78FC Saarbrücken

1.96MSV Duisburg

Total expected goals: 3.74
Attack rating (FC Saarbrücken / MSV Duisburg): 1.28 / 1.29
Defence rating (FC Saarbrücken / MSV Duisburg): 1.03 / 0.80

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

FC Saarbrücken vs MSV Duisburg score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 3.2% 3.8% 4.6% 3.0% 2.3% 1 3.4% 9.1% 8.1% 5.3% 4.1% 2 3.8% 7.4% 7.2% 4.7% 3.6% 3 2.2% 4.4% 4.3% 2.8% 2.2% 4+ 1.5% 2.9% 2.9% 1.9% 1.4%

Rows: FC Saarbrücken goals. Columns: MSV Duisburg goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

FC Saarbrücken vs MSV Duisburg goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 97%

Over 1.5 90%

Over 2.5 72%

Over 3.5 52%

Both teams to score: 72%
No goals (0–0): 3%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for FC Saarbrücken vs MSV Duisburg

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	FC Saarbrücken	35%	2.86
	Draw	23%	4.34
	MSV Duisburg	42%	2.38
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	72%	1.39
	Under 2.5	28%	3.60
Both teams to score	Yes	72%	1.38
	No	28%	3.61
Double chance	1X (FC Saarbrücken or draw)	58%	1.73
	12 (either side)	77%	1.30
	X2 (draw or MSV Duisburg)	65%	1.54
Handicap -1	MSV Duisburg win by 2+	24%	4.21
	Push (exactly one goal)	18%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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FC Saarbrücken and MSV Duisburg recent form

FC Saarbrücken 2W 2D 2L

MSV Duisburg 4W 0D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

FC Saarbrücken at home

Record (W-D-L): 2-0-2
Win rate: 50%
Goals for / match: 2.25
Goals against / match: 2.00
Clean sheets: 0 of 4

They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.8 goals per match.
They average 3.3 goals per game on the road against 2.3 at home.
36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

MSV Duisburg away

Record (W-D-L): 3-0-1
Win rate: 75%
Goals for / match: 2.75
Goals against / match: 1.50
Clean sheets: 0 of 4

They have won 5 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.5 goals per match.
Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: FC Saarbrücken at home only, MSV Duisburg away only.

FC Saarbrücken vs MSV Duisburg head-to-head

Last 2 meetings: FC Saarbrücken 0 · draws 1 · MSV Duisburg 1.

0% 50% 50%

FC SaarbrückenDrawsMSV Duisburg

Previous meetings
Date	Home	Score	Away	Competition
2026-03-08	MSV Duisburg	4-2	FC Saarbrücken	3. Liga
2025-09-30	FC Saarbrücken	0-0	MSV Duisburg	3. Liga

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Prediction snapshot MSV Duisburg to win Predicted score 1 – 2 C Bet on MSV Duisburg