Updated

3. Liga · Matchday 9

FC Saarbrücken vs MSV Duisburg

· Ludwigspark-Stadion, Saarbrücken· Referee Felix Weller

Full time2 – 4

Alin prediction was MSV Duisburg to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 2

8% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
FC SaarbrückenDrawMSV Duisburg

FC Saarbrücken vs MSV Duisburg: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceFC SaarbrückenDrawMSV Duisburg
Model35%24%41%
Market37%26%37%
Published37%25%38%
Edge0%-1%+1%
  • Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

FC Saarbrücken vs MSV Duisburg odds movement

Median bookmaker price on MSV Duisburg, 10 snapshots since 2026-10-09.

Opened 2.21Now 2.45 +0.24
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
FC Saarbrücken2.652.45-0.20
Draw3.603.50-0.10
MSV Duisburg2.212.45+0.24

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

FC Saarbrücken and MSV Duisburg expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.73FC Saarbrücken
1.88MSV Duisburg
Total expected goals
3.61
Attack rating (FC Saarbrücken / MSV Duisburg)
1.16 / 1.34
Defence rating (FC Saarbrücken / MSV Duisburg)
0.94 / 0.86

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

FC Saarbrücken vs MSV Duisburg score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 3.6% 4.2% 4.8% 3.0% 2.1% 1 3.8% 9.7% 8.3% 5.2% 3.7% 2 4.1% 7.6% 7.2% 4.5% 3.2% 3 2.3% 4.4% 4.1% 2.6% 1.9% 4+ 1.5% 2.8% 2.7% 1.7% 1.2%

Rows: FC Saarbrücken goals. Columns: MSV Duisburg goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

FC Saarbrücken vs MSV Duisburg goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 96%
Over 1.5 88%
Over 2.5 70%
Over 3.5 49%
Both teams to score
71%
No goals (0–0)
4%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for FC Saarbrücken vs MSV Duisburg

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2FC Saarbrücken37%2.73
Draw25%3.95
MSV Duisburg38%2.63
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.570%1.43
Under 2.530%3.33
Both teams to scoreYes71%1.42
No29%3.40
Double chance1X (FC Saarbrücken or draw)62%1.61
12 (either side)75%1.34
X2 (draw or MSV Duisburg)63%1.58
Handicap -1MSV Duisburg win by 2+23%4.40
Push (exactly one goal)18%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

FC Saarbrücken and MSV Duisburg recent form

FC Saarbrücken 2W 2D 2L
MSV Duisburg 5W 0D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

FC Saarbrücken at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-0-2
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
2.25
Goals against / match
2.00
Clean sheets
0 of 4
  • They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
  • 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

MSV Duisburg away

Record (W-D-L)
3-0-1
Win rate
75%
Goals for / match
2.75
Goals against / match
1.50
Clean sheets
0 of 4
  • They have won 7 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.8 goals per match.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: FC Saarbrücken at home only, MSV Duisburg away only.

Expected lineups

FC Saarbrücken lineup · 4-4-2

  1. 1 M. Bignetti
  2. 28 N. Bretschneider
  3. 4 S. Voet
  4. 21 M. Cvjetinović
  5. 42 P. Fahrner
  6. 22 K. Caliskaner
  7. 14 Z. Shuaib
  8. 5 Daniel Gleiber
  9. 20 F. Pick
  10. 29 A. Staff
  11. 31 K. Meisel

Bench: Anton Bäuerle, C. Rizzuto, Gökdeniz Gürpüz, K. Brünker, C. Kühlwetter, A. Kamara, Lee Seung-Joon, S. Vasiliadis, K. Broll

MSV Duisburg lineup · 3-4-2-1

  1. 1 M. Braune
  2. 40 B. Schlicke
  3. 5 T. Fleckstein
  4. 20 N. Jessen
  5. 8 A. Casar
  6. 6 R. Bulić
  7. 3 F. Christensen
  8. 29 J. Bitter
  9. 11 D. Kother
  10. 14 C. Noß
  11. 9 L. Lobinger

Bench: M. Besuschkow, Ramien Safi, F. Krüger, C. Coşkun, T. Stahl, P. Sussek, P. Remmert

FC Saarbrücken vs MSV Duisburg head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: FC Saarbrücken 4 · draws 3 · MSV Duisburg 3.

FC SaarbrückenDrawsMSV Duisburg
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-03-08MSV Duisburg4-2FC Saarbrücken3. Liga
2025-09-30FC Saarbrücken0-0MSV Duisburg3. Liga
2024-03-16MSV Duisburg2-0FC Saarbrücken3. Liga
2023-11-29FC Saarbrücken0-0MSV Duisburg3. Liga
2023-05-21MSV Duisburg2-2FC Saarbrücken3. Liga
2023-01-14FC Saarbrücken2-3MSV Duisburg3. Liga
2022-01-23MSV Duisburg3-4FC Saarbrücken3. Liga
2021-08-14FC Saarbrücken2-0MSV Duisburg3. Liga
2021-03-03FC Saarbrücken4-1MSV Duisburg3. Liga
2020-11-04MSV Duisburg2-3FC Saarbrücken3. Liga

Other Matchday 9 fixtures

Before and after this match