Verl vs SSV Jahn Regensburg preview
In the upcoming match between Verl and SSV Jahn Regensburg, the model gives Verl a 50% chance to win, with a most likely scoreline of 2-1 at 9%. Both teams to score and Over 2.5 goals are both at 67%, suggesting a high-scoring game is expected. Verl's expected goals stand at 2.02, while SSV Jahn Regensburg's is lower at 1.42.
However, Verl's recent form shows 3 wins and 2 losses in their last 5 matches, while SSV Jahn Regensburg has struggled with 6 games without a win. The head-to-head record also favors SSV Jahn Regensburg, who has won both of their last encounters against Verl. This could impact the match outcome despite the model's predictions.
Verl vs SSV Jahn Regensburg: model vs market
| Source | Verl | Draw | SSV Jahn Regensburg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 50% | 23% | 26% |
| Market | 44% | 24% | 32% |
| Published | 46% | 24% | 30% |
| Edge | +6% | 0% | -6% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.01 vs 1.42.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Verl below the model: +6.0 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.10, recorded — the top price across the 5 books we record, each at its own last update.
Verl and SSV Jahn Regensburg expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.43
- Attack rating (Verl / SSV Jahn Regensburg)
- 0.92 / 1.04
- Defence rating (Verl / SSV Jahn Regensburg)
- 0.93 / 1.25
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Verl vs SSV Jahn Regensburg score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Verl goals. Columns: SSV Jahn Regensburg goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Verl vs SSV Jahn Regensburg goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 67%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Verl vs SSV Jahn Regensburg
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Verl | 46% | 2.18 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.24 | |
| SSV Jahn Regensburg | 30% | 3.28 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67% | 1.50 |
| Under 2.5 | 33% | 3.00 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67% | 1.50 |
| No | 33% | 2.99 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Verl or draw) | 70% | 1.44 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.31 | |
| X2 (draw or SSV Jahn Regensburg) | 54% | 1.85 | |
| Handicap -1 | Verl win by 2+ | 30% | 3.34 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Verl and SSV Jahn Regensburg recent form
Verl
3W 1D 2L
SSV Jahn Regensburg
0W 2D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Verl at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-2
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.75
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
SSV Jahn Regensburg away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-1
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 2.75
- Goals against / match
- 3.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 2.8 goals per game on the road against 0.7 at home.
League matches this season before kick-off: Verl at home only, SSV Jahn Regensburg away only.
Verl vs SSV Jahn Regensburg head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Verl 0 · draws 0 · SSV Jahn Regensburg 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-03 | Verl | 1-2 | SSV Jahn Regensburg | 3. Liga |
| 2025-09-28 | SSV Jahn Regensburg | 2-0 | Verl | 3. Liga |
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Hansa Rostock v SV Meppen — match page 2026-10-13
- Rot-Weiß Essen vs Fortuna Köln 2026-10-13
- FC Saarbrücken v MSV Duisburg — match page 2026-10-13
- Havelse v Würzburger Kickers — match page 2026-10-13
- Preußen Münster vs Fortuna Düsseldorf — team news & stats 2026-10-14
- SV Wehen vs Alemannia Aachen 2026-10-14
- FC Viktoria Köln vs SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach — team news & stats 2026-10-14
- Waldhof Mannheim vs FC Ingolstadt 04 2026-10-14
Before and after this match
- Verl, previous: Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Verl: odds and pick
- SSV Jahn Regensburg, previous: SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Havelse prediction