Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Verl: model vs market
| Source | Fortuna Düsseldorf | Draw | Verl |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 31% | 30% | 39% |
| Market | 52% | 24% | 24% |
| Published | 47% | 25% | 28% |
| Edge | -21% | +6% | +15% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.80, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update.
Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Verl odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Fortuna Düsseldorf, 24 snapshots since 2026-09-25.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fortuna Düsseldorf | 1.65 | 1.74 | +0.09 |
| Draw | 4.35 | 3.80 | -0.55 |
| Verl | 4.20 | 3.80 | -0.40 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Fortuna Düsseldorf and Verl expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.40
- Attack rating (Fortuna Düsseldorf / Verl)
- 0.69 / 0.92
- Defence rating (Fortuna Düsseldorf / Verl)
- 0.94 / 0.93
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Verl score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Fortuna Düsseldorf goals. Columns: Verl goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Verl goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 50%
- No goals (0–0)
- 10%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Verl
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Fortuna Düsseldorf | 47% | 2.13 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.93 | |
| Verl | 28% | 3.62 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 43% | 2.32 |
| Under 2.5 | 57% | 1.76 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50% | 2.00 |
| No | 50% | 2.00 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Fortuna Düsseldorf or draw) | 72% | 1.38 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or Verl) | 53% | 1.88 | |
| Handicap -1 | Fortuna Düsseldorf win by 2+ | 13% | 7.74 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Fortuna Düsseldorf and Verl recent form
Fortuna Düsseldorf
3W 1D 2L
Verl
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Fortuna Düsseldorf at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-1
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Verl away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-1
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.67
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Fortuna Düsseldorf at home only, Verl away only.
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